Every carrier is breaking down. Their landlord just ran 19% in five sessions.

Delta has the biggest median in this window and also the biggest asterisk: nine of those nineteen Octobers had the earnings report sitting inside the window, so a good chunk of what reads like a date is really a reaction to a print, and the 2008 number is one wild week rather than a habit. The quieter name on the card is Ormat, which wins this week more often than Delta does and whose worst year through it is a rounding error next to Delta's.

SM has the strongest typical showing for Oct 11 in our universe since 2000: up 15 of 19 years (79%), with a median move of +1.23% (average +1.08%). Best year +4.8% (2012); worst -2.7% (2018).

DAL has the strongest typical showing over the next 5 trading sessions from Oct 11 in our universe since 2007: up 15 of 19 years (79%), with a median move of +3.32% (average +4.24%). Best year +40.1% (2008); worst -10.5% (2023).

The Seasonal Watchlist

The names that have owned Oct 12 – Oct 18, year after year:

The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.

The line with real history behind it is T-Mobile losing its 52-week low, where the five sessions after past breaks have gone up far more often than down, median +4.17%. I'd hold that loosely this time, because the entire carrier shelf is coming down at once (Verizon and AT&T turn up two blocks below, moving at nearly twice their usual speed), and a group unwinding is a different animal from one stock slipping through a line. Charter's break is close to noise next to it; its own record after that level is a shrug, no better than what the average stock does in a random five days.

CHTR broke below a round number at $110.00 (closed -6.0% through it).

Across 191,495 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.

Also at a level

SWKS broke below a round number at $80.00 (closed -4.6% through it).

AUGO got rejected at a swing high at $93.49.

TMUS broke below its 52-week low at $160.81 (closed -7.6% through it).

MOS broke below its 52-week low at $19.63 (closed -4.5% through it).

MCHP bounced off its volume shelf at $73.70.

LITE got rejected at its 52-week high at $1137.20.

The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.

Three of the five fastest-moving names on the board are phone companies falling at roughly twice their normal speed, which is one group event with three tickers attached. Crown Castle shows up in the same list going the other way for a reason that has nothing to do with its tenants: it bounced off its own 52-week low on Oct 2 and ran 19.86% in the five sessions after, so that is a wreck recovering rather than a sector working, and real estate as a group is still sitting near the bottom of the board.

Speeding up

When stocks are speeding up, check the options pricing. Cheap options on stocks that are accelerating create a directional edge.

Slowing down

When stocks are slowing down, check the options pricing. Expensive options on slowing stocks create an income edge.

Short vs long ATR = 3-day against 27-day average true range; above 1× the daily ranges are widening, below 1× they're compressing.

Options on GOOG have never been priced higher in a year of readings while the stock itself has been shuffling along at 23.5% realized, so somebody is paying up for a move the tape has not produced. What decides whether rich is right is whether something dated sits inside the life of the contract: a quarterly print or a court date in the window makes that price fair for a known unknown, and an empty calendar means the premium is paying for a mood.

GOOG options are the day's outlier: pricing at the 100th percentile of their own last 56 sessions (ATM implied vol 39%, which is 1.66× what the stock has actually been moving). Rich options on one name are sellers' territory, if the story fits.