2026-10-10
Today on its own produced nothing worth printing, but the week that starts tomorrow hands you six names out of six unrelated businesses whose medians all sit within a quarter of a point of each other. When the good side is that identical, the only thing separating them is how ugly the bad years got, and that is where they split wide open: HP has been through this same week down 10.07%, while Broadcom's worst trip through it barely left a mark.
Nothing stands out for Oct 10. Quiet dates happen; the next loud one is never far.
The Seasonal Watchlist
The names that have owned Oct 11 – Oct 17, year after year:
| Ticker | Hit rate | Median | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| HCA | 80% | +2.38% | 15 yrs |
| TFII | 78% | +2.31% | 18 yrs |
| HPQ | 77% | +2.31% | 26 yrs |
| GOOGL | 77% | +2.29% | 22 yrs |
| AVGO | 76% | +2.24% | 17 yrs |
| SNEX | 77% | +2.20% | 26 yrs |
The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.
Verizon is the deepest cut on the board, down 7.8% in five sessions, and it shows up again two cards below as one of the fastest-moving stocks in the market right now. The forward numbers on all three of these beaten-up names are flat at three days and only start to mean anything at twenty, which is a slower clock than most people have in mind when they see a washed-out reading.
Most overbought
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBS | Extreme overbought | 100th | $6.74 | +25.3% |
| PTC | Extreme overbought | 100th | $194.45 | +35.0% |
| PLTR | Extreme overbought | 100th | $209.05 | +10.8% |
Most oversold
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BCE | Extreme oversold | 0th | $18.78 | -4.8% |
| BMRN | Extreme oversold | 0th | $54.79 | -4.2% |
| VZ | Extreme oversold | 0th | $41.65 | -7.8% |
What's happened after this before
| Ticker | Next 3 Days | Next 7 Days | Next 30 Days | Prior Times |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VZ | 56% · +0.4% | 57% · +0.6% | 62% · +1.8% | 511 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 58% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| BCE | 53% · +0.0% | 56% · +0.1% | 56% · +0.6% | 472 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 55% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| BMRN | 51% · +0.3% | 53% · +0.4% | 59% · +1.5% | 444 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 54% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| PTC | 49% · -0.3% | 51% · +0.1% | 59% · +1.0% | 475 |
| it kept going — higher 53% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| PLTR | 48% · -0.4% | 42% · -1.3% | 58% · +2.0% | 88 |
| a coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
| SBS | 48% · -0.2% | 49% · -0.2% | 55% · +1.1% | 457 |
| a coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.
Worth sitting with: PTC is on this list for being at an extreme, and its own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.
The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.
Seven level events and the one that misbehaves is T-Mobile. It broke to a fresh 52-week low, normally the worst card in a set like this, and its own history of doing precisely that is a median +4.1% five days later, the strongest showing anywhere on the list. Charter broke a round number the same day and its record says the opposite, which is the whole point of keeping these per-name.
CHTR broke below a round number at $110.00 (closed -6.0% through it).
Across 191,495 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.
Also at a level
SWKS broke below a round number at $80.00 (closed -4.6% through it).
AUGO got rejected at a swing high at $93.49.
TMUS broke below its 52-week low at $160.81 (closed -7.6% through it).
MOS broke below its 52-week low at $19.63 (closed -4.5% through it).
MCHP bounced off its volume shelf at $73.70.
LITE got rejected at its 52-week high at $1137.20.
The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.
Four of the five fastest-accelerating names in the market are the phone business, and the fifth is their landlord. Crown Castle, which rents tower space to the carriers, is up 19.9% in five sessions while Verizon, T-Mobile and AT&T all move the other way at roughly double their normal speed. Whatever is happening in telecom this week, the tenants and the landlord are reading it very differently.
Speeding up
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| HUM | 2.16× | $431.87 | +11.2% |
| CCI | 2.09× | $79.64 | +19.9% |
| VZ | 1.94× | $41.65 | -7.8% |
| TMUS | 1.92× | $148.58 | -9.2% |
| T | 1.89× | $22.18 | -7.6% |
When stocks are speeding up, check the options pricing. Cheap options on stocks that are accelerating create a directional edge.
Slowing down
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| MKTX | 0.28× | $164.58 | +0.3% |
| TECH | 0.36× | $72.46 | +0.1% |
| FSLR | 0.56× | $177.82 | +1.8% |
| ALB | 0.59× | $101.27 | -3.2% |
| SLM | 0.59× | $22.52 | -1.0% |
When stocks are slowing down, check the options pricing. Expensive options on slowing stocks create an income edge.
Short vs long ATR = 3-day against 27-day average true range; above 1× the daily ranges are widening, below 1× they're compressing.
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