2026-10-09
Ten names walk into the weakest corner of the tape: financials are 6.39% behind SPY over the last month, and with real estate sliding even harder over the same stretch, this is the whole rate-sensitive side of the market going down together rather than a bank-specific scare. The one line worth pulling out of the table is Goldman and Wells, where the typical beat has still been a red day, and at Goldman the beat day has historically been the worse of the two outcomes. Reporting well has not been what moves these two.
The biggest names reporting in the next 7 days — and what each has typically done on report day:
| Thu Oct 15 | TSM | $2211B | before open | median swing ±2.3% over 107 reports; typically +0.8% on a beat, -3.3% on a miss |
| Tue Oct 13 | JPM | $964B | before open | median swing ±1.9% over 107 reports; typically +0.1% on a beat, -2.5% on a miss |
| Wed Oct 14 | ASML | $710B | before open | median swing ±3.5% over 101 reports; typically +1.4% on a beat, +1.8% on a miss |
| Tue Oct 13 | JNJ | $627B | before open | median swing ±1.7% over 107 reports; typically +0.1% on a beat, +2.1% on a miss |
| Wed Oct 14 | BAC | $451B | before open | median swing ±1.9% over 107 reports; typically +0.4% on a beat, -2.0% on a miss |
| Tue Oct 13 | UNH | $361B | before open | median swing ±3.1% over 108 reports; typically +0.9% on a beat, -7.5% on a miss |
| Wed Oct 14 | MS | $342B | before open | median swing ±2.3% over 107 reports; typically +1.7% on a beat, -2.2% on a miss |
| Tue Oct 13 | GS | $303B | before open | median swing ±2.0% over 107 reports; typically -0.4% on a beat, -0.2% on a miss |
| Wed Oct 14 | WFC | $269B | before open | median swing ±2.5% over 107 reports; typically -0.4% on a beat, -1.2% on a miss |
| Tue Oct 13 | C | $234B | before open | median swing ±2.0% over 107 reports; typically +0.4% on a beat, -2.5% on a miss |
CEG's five-day gain and the wall above it are the same story, not competing ones: it ran out of the $250 area at the end of September, took the next shelf on Tuesday, and has since been turned back at 305.80 twice, losing the $300 handle on the second try. Nothing there is a reversal yet. The volatility reading is measuring how quickly it covered the ground, and it covered it very quickly.
Speeding up
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| CEG | 1.84× | $285.07 | +10.1% |
| FMS | 1.79× | $20.88 | -6.2% |
| BKH | 1.79× | $76.52 | +9.1% |
| GMAB | 1.78× | $36.05 | +4.3% |
| ITUB | 1.67× | $9.83 | +16.3% |
When stocks are speeding up, check the options pricing. Cheap options on stocks that are accelerating create a directional edge.
Slowing down
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| MKTX | 0.28× | $164.31 | +0.1% |
| TECH | 0.42× | $72.45 | +0.1% |
| EIX | 0.58× | $54.30 | +2.6% |
| PODD | 0.59× | $134.47 | +2.8% |
| ALB | 0.60× | $102.10 | -2.8% |
When stocks are slowing down, check the options pricing. Expensive options on slowing stocks create an income edge.
Short vs long ATR = 3-day against 27-day average true range; above 1× the daily ranges are widening, below 1× they're compressing.
The only fresh thing on JCI's chart is the 52-week high it cleared on Tuesday at 157.53, and a breakout by itself does not normally make a stock's options the most expensive they've been all year. Implied is running ahead of what the shares have actually delivered, which means the premium is for a move nobody has seen yet, and nothing in the price history tells you which direction it's being bought for. Anyone buying premium here is paying the top of the year's range to find out.
JCI options are the day's outlier: pricing at the 100th percentile of their own last 54 sessions (ATM implied vol 38%, which is 1.20× what the stock has actually been moving). Rich options on one name are sellers' territory, if the story fits.
PTC has added nearly a third of its value in five sessions on a ten-year record that is a straight coin flip, and that combination is the thing to sit with, because overbought on its own has a five-day median of exactly 0.00%. What sorts the label is the company wearing it: the names with winning records keep running, and the duds hand it back within the week.
Most overbought
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBS | Extreme overbought | 100th | $6.59 | +25.3% |
| PTC | Extreme overbought | 100th | $193.73 | +32.3% |
| PLTR | Extreme overbought | 97th | $198.78 | +4.6% |
Most oversold
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMRN | Extreme oversold | 0th | $54.89 | -6.1% |
| MT | Extreme oversold | 0th | $61.30 | -5.0% |
| AEG | Extreme oversold | 0th | $8.27 | -2.6% |
What's happened after this before
| Ticker | Next 3 Days | Next 7 Days | Next 30 Days | Prior Times |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEG | 53% · +0.2% | 55% · +0.4% | 56% · +1.1% | 508 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 55% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| BMRN | 51% · +0.3% | 53% · +0.4% | 59% · +1.5% | 444 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 54% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| PTC | 49% · -0.3% | 51% · +0.1% | 59% · +1.0% | 475 |
| it kept going — higher 53% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| MT | 46% · -0.5% | 50% · -0.4% | 48% · -0.1% | 443 |
| a coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
| PLTR | 48% · -0.4% | 42% · -1.3% | 58% · +2.0% | 88 |
| a coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
| SBS | 48% · -0.2% | 49% · -0.2% | 55% · +1.1% | 457 |
| a coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.
Worth sitting with: PTC is on this list for being at an extreme, and its own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.
The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.
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