One mega-cap's options are the priciest they've been in a year, and the stock is barely moving

Oct 8 itself produced nothing that cleared the floor, so the card ahead of it is the one to read: Ternium has come through the Oct 9–15 window green in four of every five years it has existed as a listing. Costco is the quieter half of the pair, and its ugliest version of that week was the 2008 crash at -6.62%, which still leaves it up in better than three years out of four with a +1.56% median behind it.

Nothing stands out for Oct 8. Quiet dates happen; the next loud one is never far.

The Seasonal Watchlist

The names that have owned Oct 9 – Oct 15, year after year:

The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.

FMS is the one on this list with a record attached: when it has broken a swing low before, the following five days have run about +1.17% at the median, better than double what the average broken low in the database does. Worth being clear about what's bouncing, though. FMS has beaten the market in three of the last ten years, so this is a twitch the stock happens to have, rather than a good business going on sale.

FMS broke below a swing low at $21.98 (closed -5.9% through it).

Across 103,136 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.

Also at a level

MOS broke below a swing low at $20.64 (closed -3.3% through it).

CGNX broke below its volume shelf at $66.02 (closed -7.3% through it).

NPO broke below its volume shelf at $333.62 (closed -4.8% through it).

IESC broke below a round number at $325.00 (closed -5.0% through it).

OC broke below a round number at $120.00 (closed -4.4% through it).

TXT broke below its 52-week low at $75.28 (closed -3.0% through it).

The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.

FMS turns up here too, which matters for the bounce note above: whatever rebound its history suggests, you'd be collecting it in a stock that fell 7.6% in a week while its daily range doubled. CEG sits at the same volatility reading with a double-digit up week behind it, and down at the quiet end MKTX is ticking along at under a third of its normal range, which is its own kind of information.

Speeding up

When stocks are speeding up, check the options pricing. Cheap options on stocks that are accelerating create a directional edge.

Slowing down

When stocks are slowing down, check the options pricing. Expensive options on slowing stocks create an income edge.

Short vs long ATR = 3-day against 27-day average true range; above 1× the daily ranges are widening, below 1× they're compressing.

I check this screen every morning and a reading of exactly 100 still stops me, because it means every other week in the past year priced GOOGL options cheaper than today does. The condition that makes it interesting is the gap underneath it: buyers are paying for nearly 37% of movement in a stock that has actually delivered under 26% over the last month, so the premium is betting on something the daily bars have not done yet.

GOOGL options are the day's outlier: pricing at the 100th percentile of their own last 53 sessions (ATM implied vol 37%, which is 1.43× what the stock has actually been moving). Rich options on one name are sellers' territory, if the story fits.