2026-10-06
Oracle's record in this week is less about how high it goes than about how little it has ever cost: the worst Oct 7–13 since 2000 took 3.84% off, and that is the entire downside tail of the run. It arrives there off a failed breakdown, having lost its late-September swing low and then trading straight back up through it the next session, where $140 turned it away.
EGO has the strongest typical showing for Oct 6 in our universe since 2003: up 14 of 17 years (82%), with a median move of +1.99% (average +1.62%). Best year +4.2% (2021); worst -5.7% (2008).
The Seasonal Watchlist
The names that have owned Oct 7 – Oct 13, year after year:
| Ticker | Hit rate | Median | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL | 77% | +1.96% | 26 yrs |
| WIT | 80% | +1.64% | 25 yrs |
The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.
PTC's 37.6% in five sessions is the number everyone will quote, but look at the company it is keeping in the fast lane: a Brazilian bank, a Brazilian water utility and Petrobras, all lighting up in the same week. That is three tickers and one currency, which is a different thing from three stocks going up. At the other end, WBD has effectively stopped moving, its three-day range now a fraction of what it ran all month.
Speeding up
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| PTC | 3.07× | $192.26 | +37.6% |
| ITUB | 2.63× | $9.92 | +24.2% |
| GMAB | 2.49× | $38.48 | +8.8% |
| SBS | 2.31× | $6.26 | +21.8% |
| PBR | 2.18× | $24.14 | +16.9% |
When stocks are speeding up, check the options pricing. Cheap options on stocks that are accelerating create a directional edge.
Slowing down
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| WBD | 0.22× | $30.95 | +0.2% |
| MKTX | 0.31× | $164.04 | +0.1% |
| TECH | 0.43× | $72.58 | +0.1% |
| ALB | 0.57× | $104.37 | -2.8% |
| AVAV | 0.59× | $139.30 | -5.4% |
When stocks are slowing down, check the options pricing. Expensive options on slowing stocks create an income edge.
Short vs long ATR = 3-day against 27-day average true range; above 1× the daily ranges are widening, below 1× they're compressing.
The beaten-up side today is one trade wearing three tickers: two mortgage REITs and a casino, all of them hostage to the same rate move, out of the corner of the market that has lagged for a month. Worth separating the reading from the company before anyone gets excited about a bounce, because MGM has finished higher in three of the last ten years, and a washed-out reading on that kind of name has historically gone nowhere at all.
Most overbought
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PTC | Extreme overbought | 100th | $192.26 | +37.6% |
| SBS | Extreme overbought | 100th | $6.26 | +21.8% |
| TSM | Extreme overbought | 99th | $485.80 | +7.3% |
Most oversold
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MGM | Extreme oversold | 0th | $30.17 | -5.3% |
| NLY | Extreme oversold | 0th | $18.27 | -6.7% |
| AGNC | Extreme oversold | 0th | $8.65 | -7.4% |
What's happened after this before
| Ticker | Next 3 Days | Next 7 Days | Next 30 Days | Prior Times |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGNC | 59% · +0.3% | 57% · +0.2% | 62% · +1.1% | 299 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 59% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| NLY | 57% · +0.4% | 57% · +0.5% | 59% · +1.2% | 472 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 58% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| MGM | 52% · +0.2% | 54% · +0.7% | 54% · +1.3% | 500 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 54% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| PTC | 49% · -0.3% | 51% · +0.1% | 59% · +1.0% | 475 |
| it kept going — higher 53% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| SBS | 48% · -0.2% | 49% · -0.2% | 55% · +1.1% | 457 |
| a coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
| TSM | 45% · -0.3% | 47% · -0.2% | 58% · +1.0% | 524 |
| a coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.
Worth sitting with: PTC is on this list for being at an extreme, and its own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.
The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.
AAPL options are the priciest they have been in a year while the stock itself has only been moving at a 20.9% annual pace over the past month, so the quote is for travel that has not happened. Nothing on the next week's earnings calendar covers Apple either, so there is no scheduled event sitting under that premium.
AAPL options are the day's outlier: pricing at the 90th percentile of their own last 52 sessions (ATM implied vol 26%, which is 1.24× what the stock has actually been moving). Rich options on one name are sellers' territory, if the story fits.
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