2026-10-05
Every line here is a stock getting turned away or giving up a level, which reads bearish right up until you check what each name has actually done next. DINO is the odd one: it got rejected at $110 on Friday, and after its past rejections at a round number it has been up 1.32% a week later, which is several times what a rejection pays across everything else on the board.
STX broke below a round number at $950.00 (closed -10.6% through it).
Across 191,251 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 53% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.
Also at a level
MORN broke below a round number at $190.00 (closed -3.4% through it).
DSGX got rejected at a swing high at $82.65.
NKE broke below its 52-week low at $35.02 (closed -3.3% through it).
TIGO bounced off its volume shelf at $84.77.
NYT bounced off a round number at $60.00.
DINO bounced off a round number at $110.00.
The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.
Ryder owns Oct 5, and the part I like is how uneventful the bad years were: its worst Oct 5 since 2000 was a 3.99% loss. The queue right behind it is a mining convention, TECK and CDE and HMY and AG and SSRM, and not one of them wins the date often enough to print, which is what gold seasonality usually looks like up close. The week itself goes to Costco.
R has the strongest typical showing for Oct 5 in our universe since 2000: up 14 of 18 years (78%), with a median move of +1.68% (average +0.98%). Best year +3.4% (2007); worst -4.0% (2000).
The Seasonal Watchlist
The names that have owned Oct 6 – Oct 12, year after year:
| Ticker | Hit rate | Median | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| COST | 77% | +1.68% | 26 yrs |
The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.
Accelerating doesn't mean up. ACN is at the top of the list after a 12.9% week with its daily range doubling, and NKE is on the same list for the opposite reason, having spent that week breaking down through a 52-week low. The ACN line has a footnote, too: its C-suite, CEO included, all bought on the same day back in August, small tickets each.
Speeding up
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| ACN | 2.02× | $198.90 | +12.9% |
| JSM | 1.70× | $16.72 | -3.4% |
| QGEN | 1.64× | $44.75 | +1.3% |
| SNPS | 1.62× | $489.90 | +15.1% |
| NKE | 1.52× | $33.87 | -5.3% |
When stocks are speeding up, check the options pricing. Cheap options on stocks that are accelerating create a directional edge.
Slowing down
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| WBD | 0.26× | $30.94 | +0.3% |
| MKTX | 0.29× | $164.14 | 0.0% |
| TECH | 0.35× | $72.40 | -0.3% |
| SIMO | 0.55× | $280.50 | +1.5% |
| NVO | 0.55× | $37.32 | -3.8% |
When stocks are slowing down, check the options pricing. Expensive options on slowing stocks create an income edge.
Short vs long ATR = 3-day against 27-day average true range; above 1× the daily ranges are widening, below 1× they're compressing.
NLY, AGNC and WY all went washed-out on the same day, which is one rates story wearing three tickers rather than three separate ideas. And look at the shape of what followed for everything on this card, both sides: the first few days after are noise, and whatever payoff exists turns up nearer the one-month mark, +1.19% for NLY.
Most overbought
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNPS | Extreme overbought | 98th | $489.90 | +15.1% |
| MTRN | Extreme overbought | 98th | $312.16 | +17.8% |
| TSM | Extreme overbought | 98th | $472.78 | +4.9% |
Most oversold
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLY | Extreme oversold | 0th | $18.50 | -6.7% |
| AGNC | Extreme oversold | 0th | $8.79 | -7.4% |
| WY | Extreme oversold | 0th | $18.47 | -7.7% |
What's happened after this before
| Ticker | Next 3 Days | Next 7 Days | Next 30 Days | Prior Times |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGNC | 59% · +0.3% | 57% · +0.2% | 62% · +1.1% | 299 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 59% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| NLY | 57% · +0.4% | 57% · +0.5% | 59% · +1.2% | 472 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 58% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| SNPS | 49% · -0.2% | 53% · -0.1% | 57% · +0.7% | 466 |
| it kept going — higher 53% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| WY | 48% · -0.3% | 51% · -0.1% | 58% · +1.2% | 442 |
| a coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
| MTRN | 49% · +0.2% | 52% · +0.5% | 50% · +0.8% | 466 |
| a coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
| TSM | 45% · -0.3% | 47% · -0.2% | 58% · +1.0% | 524 |
| a coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.
Worth sitting with: SNPS is on this list for being at an extreme, and its own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.
The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.
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