2026-10-03
The one I'd stare at is DINO, turned away at the $110 round. A rejection is supposed to mean the move is finished, and for most of the universe it roughly does, but DINO's own history says the week after it gets refused at a round number has run about +1.32%, the friendliest forward record on this card. Energy is the three-month sector leader and has spent the last month trailing SPY, so the group isn't pushing it either way.
STX broke below a round number at $950.00 (closed -10.6% through it).
Across 191,251 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 53% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.
Also at a level
MORN broke below a round number at $190.00 (closed -3.4% through it).
DSGX got rejected at a swing high at $82.65.
NKE broke below its 52-week low at $35.02 (closed -3.3% through it).
TIGO bounced off its volume shelf at $84.77.
NYT bounced off a round number at $60.00.
DINO bounced off a round number at $110.00.
The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.
ACN is the loudest name here, up 12.9% in five sessions with its daily range at double what it normally is. The part nobody mentions: on August 5, eight of its own officers bought stock on the same day, the CEO, the CFO and the COO among them.
Speeding up
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| ACN | 2.02× | $198.90 | +12.9% |
| JSM | 1.70× | $16.72 | -3.4% |
| QGEN | 1.64× | $44.75 | +1.3% |
| SNPS | 1.62× | $489.90 | +15.1% |
| NKE | 1.52× | $33.87 | -5.3% |
When stocks are speeding up, check the options pricing. Cheap options on stocks that are accelerating create a directional edge.
Slowing down
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| WBD | 0.26× | $30.94 | +0.3% |
| MKTX | 0.29× | $164.14 | 0.0% |
| TECH | 0.35× | $72.40 | -0.3% |
| SIMO | 0.55× | $280.50 | +1.5% |
| NVO | 0.55× | $37.32 | -3.8% |
When stocks are slowing down, check the options pricing. Expensive options on slowing stocks create an income edge.
Short vs long ATR = 3-day against 27-day average true range; above 1× the daily ranges are widening, below 1× they're compressing.
Three names hit the bottom of their own trailing year yesterday, and two of them are mortgage REITs with a timber REIT for company. That isn't three washed-out stocks, it's one rate trade wearing three tickers, and only one of them has a record of staying down afterward: WY has averaged -0.32% over the three days following this exact condition while the other two bounced.
Most overbought
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNPS | Extreme overbought | 98th | $489.90 | +15.1% |
| MTRN | Extreme overbought | 98th | $312.16 | +17.8% |
| TSM | Extreme overbought | 98th | $472.78 | +4.9% |
Most oversold
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLY | Extreme oversold | 0th | $18.50 | -6.7% |
| AGNC | Extreme oversold | 0th | $8.79 | -7.4% |
| WY | Extreme oversold | 0th | $18.47 | -7.7% |
What's happened after this before
| Ticker | Next 3 Days | Next 7 Days | Next 30 Days | Prior Times |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGNC | 59% · +0.3% | 57% · +0.2% | 62% · +1.1% | 299 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 59% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| NLY | 57% · +0.4% | 57% · +0.5% | 59% · +1.2% | 472 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 58% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| SNPS | 49% · -0.2% | 53% · -0.1% | 57% · +0.7% | 466 |
| it kept going — higher 53% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| WY | 48% · -0.3% | 51% · -0.1% | 58% · +1.2% | 442 |
| a coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
| MTRN | 49% · +0.2% | 52% · +0.5% | 50% · +0.8% | 466 |
| a coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
| TSM | 45% · -0.3% | 47% · -0.2% | 58% · +1.0% | 524 |
| a coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.
Worth sitting with: SNPS is on this list for being at an extreme, and its own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.
The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.
Walmart's implied vol is sitting at the absolute floor of its own range, a flat zero on the rank, while the stock's actual movement over the past month has run above what those options are charging for the next one. Cheap options usually mean a sleepy stock; this one is being underbilled for what it is already doing.
WMT options are the day's outlier: pricing at the 0th percentile of their own last 48 sessions (ATM implied vol 19%, which is 0.86× what the stock has actually been moving). Cheap options on one name are worth a look if you were already watching it.
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