2026-10-02
The strongest run through Oct 3–9 anywhere in the universe isn't on the eligible list at all: Arista has closed that week green in 11 of its last 12 years, and it's still three Octobers short of the history floor. What did clear is a Brazilian bank, which comes with its own warning label, since its worst trip through this week is roughly double its best one.
MRVL has the strongest typical showing for Oct 2 in our universe since 2000: up 15 of 19 years (79%), with a median move of +1.01% (average +0.90%). Best year +4.1% (2002); worst -5.2% (2008).
BBD has the strongest typical showing over the next 5 trading sessions from Oct 2 in our universe since 2002: up 19 of 24 years (79%), with a median move of +2.81% (average +1.64%). Best year +14.5% (2014); worst -29.2% (2008).
The Seasonal Watchlist
The names that have owned Oct 3 – Oct 9, year after year:
| Ticker | Hit rate | Median | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| BBD | 79% | +2.81% | 24 yrs |
| STN | 76% | +1.85% | 21 yrs |
The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.
Three beaten-up names, and the chart is the least useful thing about them. MGM walks in carrying a decade of mostly losing years, and that class of stock has historically gone precisely nowhere after a washout: median move five days later, 0.00%. Getting oversold is a fact about the price; bouncing is a fact about the business.
Most overbought
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNPS | Extreme overbought | 99th | $490.54 | +15.4% |
| AES | Extreme overbought | 98th | $14.92 | +0.5% |
| ACN | Extreme overbought | 98th | $212.30 | +19.7% |
Most oversold
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MGM | Extreme oversold | 0th | $30.47 | -9.6% |
| O | Extreme oversold | 0th | $53.53 | -2.9% |
| BYD | Extreme oversold | 0th | $66.07 | -8.0% |
What's happened after this before
| Ticker | Next 3 Days | Next 7 Days | Next 30 Days | Prior Times |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| O | 56% · +0.5% | 58% · +0.7% | 64% · +2.2% | 474 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 59% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| MGM | 52% · +0.2% | 54% · +0.7% | 54% · +1.3% | 500 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 54% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| SNPS | 49% · -0.2% | 53% · -0.1% | 57% · +0.7% | 466 |
| it kept going — higher 53% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| ACN | 49% · -0.3% | 51% · -0.3% | 54% · -0.0% | 482 |
| a coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
| BYD | 49% · +0.0% | 54% · +0.4% | 50% · +1.3% | 446 |
| a coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
| AES | 47% · +0.1% | 48% · +0.2% | 55% · +1.7% | 496 |
| a coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.
Worth sitting with: SNPS is on this list for being at an extreme, and its own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.
The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.
Every line here is a break or a rejection, which is supposed to be the unhappy direction. The one with the strongest record behind it is BSBR, and it has been here before: after it loses its own swing low, the next five sessions have run a median of +1.05%. Support giving way describes the week that just happened more than the one coming.
BSBR broke below a swing low at $5.54 (closed -3.8% through it).
Across 102,963 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.
Also at a level
RGEN broke below a round number at $190.00 (closed -6.7% through it).
ICLR broke below a round number at $170.00 (closed -4.8% through it).
IT got rejected at a swing high at $202.98.
JBS broke below its 52-week low at $11.21 (closed -3.1% through it).
PPG bounced off its volume shelf at $101.49.
FITB bounced off its volume shelf at $48.91.
The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.
GOOGL options are priced at the very top of their own year, and the stock underneath them has been moving about 25% annualized over the last month. Somebody is paying full freight for motion that hasn't shown up yet.
GOOGL options are the day's outlier: pricing at the 100th percentile of their own last 47 sessions (ATM implied vol 32%, which is 1.27× what the stock has actually been moving). Rich options on one name are sellers' territory, if the story fits.
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