2026-09-27
MGM had to fall 13.8% in five sessions to earn the top of the oversold column, which is the kind of drop that feels like it has to mean something, and then its own history after readings like this comes back a coin flip three days later. The other side of the card is the more useful lesson today: CHT is the most stretched name on the board, and the longer you've waited after a reading like that, the better it has done, so the label has been describing strength rather than marking a top.
Most overbought
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DHR | Extreme overbought | 99th | $224.49 | +6.0% |
| RVTY | Extreme overbought | 98th | $151.11 | +5.3% |
| CHT | Extreme overbought | 97th | $46.15 | +0.5% |
Most oversold
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MGM | Extreme oversold | 0th | $32.58 | -13.8% |
| TXRH | Extreme oversold | 0th | $159.75 | -4.7% |
| ORI | Extreme oversold | 0th | $37.74 | -5.5% |
What's happened after this before
| Ticker | Next 3 Days | Next 7 Days | Next 30 Days | Prior Times |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXRH | 61% · +1.0% | 60% · +1.3% | 58% · +2.2% | 400 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 60% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| ORI | 55% · +0.2% | 56% · +0.4% | 69% · +2.9% | 435 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 60% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| CHT | 47% · -0.0% | 54% · +0.2% | 64% · +1.0% | 428 |
| it kept going — higher 55% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| MGM | 53% · +0.2% | 54% · +0.7% | 54% · +1.4% | 498 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 54% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| RVTY | 50% · +0.1% | 52% · +0.3% | 58% · +1.5% | 459 |
| it kept going — higher 53% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| DHR | 46% · -0.3% | 48% · -0.3% | 54% · +0.1% | 506 |
| a coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.
Worth sitting with: CHT, RVTY are on this list for being at an extreme, and their own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.
The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.
AIR is the line worth reading here. It has spent the month wrestling with $120, got knocked back from that same level on Sep 17, and then ran 7.5% over the following five sessions. Its record after cracking a round number is the strongest thing on this card, and it points up, which is the opposite of what the words "break down" promise.
GIS broke below a round number at $35.00 (closed -3.9% through it).
Across 190,947 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.
Also at a level
AIR broke below a round number at $120.00 (closed -3.2% through it).
AKAM got rejected at a swing high at $127.04.
CLS got rejected at a swing high at $378.99.
OMC bounced off its volume shelf at $73.70.
HPE got rejected at its 52-week high at $65.48.
FRHC got rejected at its 52-week high at $177.50.
The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.
OII's Sep 27 record is clean partly because the day is quiet: its worst one ever cost 2.3%, and a date that never moves much in either direction is a small idea even when it wins most of the time. The week ahead has exactly one name clearing the floor, ACN, and ACN reports on Oct 1, right in the middle of that window. A calendar record with an earnings print sitting inside it is mostly a record of the print.
OII has the strongest typical showing for Sep 27 in our universe since 2000: up 15 of 19 years (79%), with a median move of +1.18% (average +1.01%). Best year +4.8% (2000); worst -2.3% (2011).
The Seasonal Watchlist
The names that have owned Sep 28 – Oct 4, year after year:
| Ticker | Hit rate | Median | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| ACN | 76% | +2.00% | 25 yrs |
The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.
MU is the biggest company on this list and the strangest row on it. It beats far more often than it misses, and the median reaction to a beat has still been a loss of 1.2%. Good news has been mildly expensive and bad news worse, which tells you the print has never been the thing being traded.
The biggest names reporting in the next 7 days — and what each has typically done on report day:
| Wed Sep 30 | MU | $1029B | after close | median swing ±4.8% over 107 reports; typically -1.2% on a beat, -3.0% on a miss |
| Thu Oct 1 | ACN | $108B | before open | median swing ±4.8% over 100 reports; typically +1.6% on a beat, -2.3% on a miss |
| Thu Oct 1 | NKE | $60.4B | after close | median swing ±4.7% over 107 reports; typically +1.8% on a beat, -5.1% on a miss |
| Tue Sep 29 | CCL | $38.5B | before open | median swing ±4.0% over 107 reports; typically +0.2% on a beat, +0.1% on a miss |
| Wed Sep 30 | JBL | $38.0B | before open | median swing ±6.5% over 107 reports; typically +2.9% on a beat, -2.0% on a miss |
| Thu Oct 1 | MKC | $14.7B | before open | median swing ±2.6% over 107 reports; typically +0.5% on a beat, -5.8% on a miss |
| Mon Sep 28 | JEF | $11.2B | after close | median swing ±2.0% over 100 reports; typically -0.3% on a beat, +0.1% on a miss |
| Thu Oct 1 | AYI | $10.7B | before open | median swing ±5.5% over 99 reports; typically +2.9% on a beat, -4.9% on a miss |
| Wed Sep 30 | FDS | $10.1B | before open | median swing ±4.2% over 107 reports; typically +1.0% on a beat, -1.9% on a miss |
| Tue Sep 29 | KMX | $8.3B | before open | median swing ±6.3% over 107 reports; typically +2.8% on a beat, -7.1% on a miss |
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