2026-09-26
MGM had to fall 13.8% in a week to get onto this list, and its own record after getting this washed out is a coin flip, so the size of the drop is doing more talking than the history is. ORI is the opposite shape: nothing much happens for a week, then it's higher a month later about two times in three, which is the boring way to get paid. And CHT, sitting at the hot end of the card, has historically been fine a month after looking this stretched.
Most overbought
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DHR | Extreme overbought | 99th | $224.49 | +6.0% |
| RVTY | Extreme overbought | 98th | $151.11 | +5.3% |
| CHT | Extreme overbought | 97th | $46.15 | +0.5% |
Most oversold
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MGM | Extreme oversold | 0th | $32.58 | -13.8% |
| TXRH | Extreme oversold | 0th | $159.75 | -4.7% |
| ORI | Extreme oversold | 0th | $37.74 | -5.5% |
What's happened after this before
| Ticker | Next 3 Days | Next 7 Days | Next 30 Days | Prior Times |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXRH | 61% · +1.0% | 60% · +1.3% | 58% · +2.2% | 400 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 60% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| ORI | 55% · +0.2% | 56% · +0.4% | 69% · +2.9% | 435 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 60% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| CHT | 47% · -0.0% | 54% · +0.2% | 64% · +1.0% | 428 |
| it kept going — higher 55% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| MGM | 53% · +0.2% | 54% · +0.7% | 54% · +1.4% | 498 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 54% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| RVTY | 50% · +0.1% | 52% · +0.3% | 58% · +1.5% | 459 |
| it kept going — higher 53% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| DHR | 46% · -0.3% | 48% · -0.3% | 54% · +0.1% | 506 |
| a coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.
Worth sitting with: CHT, RVTY are on this list for being at an extreme, and their own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.
The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.
The line with a record behind it is AIR rather than GIS: when AIR has broken down through a round number before, it has tended to be higher five days later, which is the opposite of how a breakdown is supposed to read. It's been wrestling with $120 all month, rejected there on the 17th and then up 7.5% over the next five sessions, and yesterday it cut straight through.
GIS broke below a round number at $35.00 (closed -3.9% through it).
Across 190,947 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.
Also at a level
AIR broke below a round number at $120.00 (closed -3.2% through it).
AKAM got rejected at a swing high at $127.04.
CLS got rejected at a swing high at $378.99.
OMC bounced off its volume shelf at $73.70.
HPE got rejected at its 52-week high at $65.48.
FRHC got rejected at its 52-week high at $177.50.
The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.
GEN again: down 25.5% in five sessions, with its three-day range now running near double its own monthly normal. This is a company that has closed more of the last ten years red than green, so the violence isn't out of character, it's just all arriving at once.
Speeding up
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| SNX | 2.14× | $263.03 | -1.2% |
| MGM | 1.92× | $32.58 | -13.8% |
| GEN | 1.88× | $21.62 | -25.5% |
| AKAM | 1.76× | $113.94 | +9.0% |
| UGP | 1.52× | $7.10 | -6.3% |
When stocks are speeding up, check the options pricing. Cheap options on stocks that are accelerating create a directional edge.
Slowing down
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| TECH | 0.30× | $72.61 | +0.3% |
| MKTX | 0.33× | $164.19 | +0.5% |
| EIX | 0.48× | $52.65 | -4.8% |
| MKSI | 0.53× | $260.82 | +3.5% |
| NVMI | 0.55× | $368.23 | +3.4% |
When stocks are slowing down, check the options pricing. Expensive options on slowing stocks create an income edge.
Short vs long ATR = 3-day against 27-day average true range; above 1× the daily ranges are widening, below 1× they're compressing.
Micron prints Wednesday night carrying the one line on this card with the sign backwards: the typical reaction to a quarter it beat has been -1.2%. Beating hasn't been the good outcome here, and for a trillion-dollar company that is a strange thing to have stayed true for as long as it has.
The biggest names reporting in the next 7 days — and what each has typically done on report day:
| Wed Sep 30 | MU | $1029B | after close | median swing ±4.8% over 107 reports; typically -1.2% on a beat, -3.0% on a miss |
| Thu Oct 1 | ACN | $108B | before open | median swing ±4.8% over 100 reports; typically +1.6% on a beat, -2.3% on a miss |
| Thu Oct 1 | NKE | $60.4B | after close | median swing ±4.7% over 107 reports; typically +1.8% on a beat, -5.1% on a miss |
| Tue Sep 29 | CCL | $38.5B | before open | median swing ±4.0% over 107 reports; typically +0.2% on a beat, +0.1% on a miss |
| Wed Sep 30 | JBL | $38.0B | before open | median swing ±6.5% over 107 reports; typically +2.9% on a beat, -2.0% on a miss |
| Thu Oct 1 | MKC | $14.7B | before open | median swing ±2.6% over 107 reports; typically +0.5% on a beat, -5.8% on a miss |
| Mon Sep 28 | JEF | $11.2B | after close | median swing ±2.0% over 100 reports; typically -0.3% on a beat, +0.1% on a miss |
| Thu Oct 1 | AYI | $10.7B | before open | median swing ±5.5% over 99 reports; typically +2.9% on a beat, -4.9% on a miss |
| Wed Sep 30 | FDS | $10.1B | before open | median swing ±4.2% over 107 reports; typically +1.0% on a beat, -1.9% on a miss |
| Tue Sep 29 | KMX | $8.3B | before open | median swing ±6.3% over 107 reports; typically +2.8% on a beat, -7.1% on a miss |
Get issues like this by email: