2026-09-24
Most of this card is the sort of thing you can argue either way. PB is the exception: it's the one break whose own history after losing a swing low leans higher a week later, and it had already bounced off this exact level on the 16th and fallen 4.4% anyway. The level is doing real work on that stock, just not in the direction the word "breakdown" implies.
DB broke below a swing low at $37.53 (closed -4.4% through it).
Across 102,756 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.
Also at a level
PB broke below a swing low at $69.20 (closed -2.8% through it).
PAYX broke below a round number at $110.00 (closed -5.0% through it).
EGO broke below a round number at $45.00 (closed -4.8% through it).
MCD broke below its 52-week low at $246.52 (closed -3.3% through it).
SPOT bounced off its volume shelf at $487.85.
BBY got rejected at its 52-week high at $95.85.
The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.
Two net-lease REITs and a utility sitting at the bottom of their own trailing year is one trade wearing three tickers: anything priced off long rates. The sector table further down says the same thing with utilities more than 17% behind the S&P over three months, so what's worth watching here is the bond market rather than the RSI reading.
Most overbought
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHT | Extreme overbought | 100th | $46.20 | +2.3% |
| META | Extreme overbought | 99th | $744.10 | +10.5% |
| NICE | Extreme overbought | 98th | $117.79 | +11.7% |
Most oversold
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADC | Extreme oversold | 0th | $67.12 | -2.0% |
| O | Extreme oversold | 0th | $55.61 | -2.7% |
| DTE | Extreme oversold | 0th | $122.89 | -5.1% |
What's happened after this before
| Ticker | Next 3 Days | Next 7 Days | Next 30 Days | Prior Times |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DTE | 59% · +0.2% | 57% · +0.3% | 64% · +1.4% | 451 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 60% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| O | 56% · +0.5% | 58% · +0.7% | 64% · +2.2% | 472 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 59% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| ADC | 57% · +0.4% | 57% · +0.5% | 58% · +1.5% | 459 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 58% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| META | 52% · +0.5% | 51% · +0.6% | 66% · +3.3% | 228 |
| it kept going — higher 56% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| CHT | 47% · -0.0% | 54% · +0.2% | 64% · +1.0% | 428 |
| it kept going — higher 55% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| NICE | 48% · -0.1% | 48% · -0.1% | 51% · -0.2% | 483 |
| a coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.
Worth sitting with: META, CHT are on this list for being at an extreme, and their own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.
The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.
Micron is the odd one on this list: it beats far more often than it misses, and the median reaction to a beat has still been a down day. When good news is worth a red close, the quarter was never the thing anyone was trading.
The biggest names reporting in the next 7 days — and what each has typically done on report day:
| Wed Sep 30 | MU | $1029B | after close | median swing ±4.8% over 107 reports; typically -1.2% on a beat, -3.0% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 24 | COST | $426B | after close | median swing ±1.4% over 95 reports; typically +0.1% on a beat, -1.3% on a miss |
| Tue Sep 29 | CCL | $38.5B | before open | median swing ±4.0% over 107 reports; typically +0.2% on a beat, +0.1% on a miss |
| Wed Sep 30 | JBL | $38.0B | before open | median swing ±6.5% over 107 reports; typically +2.9% on a beat, -2.0% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 24 | DRI | $25.6B | before open | median swing ±3.2% over 107 reports; typically +1.3% on a beat, -3.8% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 24 | SNX | $20.7B | before open | median swing ±5.8% over 91 reports; typically +1.2% on a beat, -5.5% on a miss |
| Mon Sep 28 | JEF | $11.2B | after close | median swing ±2.0% over 100 reports; typically -0.3% on a beat, +0.1% on a miss |
| Wed Sep 30 | FDS | $10.1B | before open | median swing ±4.2% over 107 reports; typically +1.0% on a beat, -1.9% on a miss |
| Tue Sep 29 | KMX | $8.3B | before open | median swing ±6.3% over 107 reports; typically +2.8% on a beat, -7.1% on a miss |
| Wed Sep 30 | CAG | $7.5B | before open | median swing ±2.0% over 107 reports; typically +0.6% on a beat, -1.6% on a miss |
Exactly one sector beat the index over the last month, and it did it by a little under eight points while the other ten all lost ground. Everything that pays you a dividend is stacked at the bottom of the list, which is the same story the washed-out names told two blocks up.
Where money has been rotating — the eleven sectors ranked against the S&P 500 over three months:
| Sector | 3-mo vs SPY | 1-mo vs SPY | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | XLE Energy | +11.7 | -1.7 |
| 2 | XLV Health Care | +5.4 | -3.9 |
| 3 | XLK Technology | +2.0 | +7.9 |
| 4 | XLC Communication Services | +0.9 | -0.4 |
| 5 | XLF Financial | -3.2 | -6.9 |
| 6 | XLB Materials | -6.4 | -6.7 |
| 7 | XLP Consumer Staples | -7.1 | -6.3 |
| 8 | XLY Consumer Discretionary | -8.6 | -7.0 |
| 9 | XLI Industrial | -10.3 | -5.5 |
| 10 | XLRE Real Estate | -10.7 | -8.3 |
| 11 | XLU Utilities | -17.4 | -8.6 |
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