2026-09-22
Every name on the beaten-up side of the board this morning is a REIT: Agree Realty, Realty Income (that's O) and UDR. That is a sector story rather than three separate stocks having a bad week, because real estate is dead last on the board right now, roughly 7% behind SPY over the last month and about the same over the last three. Their own records after readings this washed out lean positive in all three windows, with most of the move historically showing up twenty days later rather than in the first three.
Most overbought
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| META | Extreme overbought | 100th | $741.24 | +11.4% |
| CHT | Extreme overbought | 99th | $45.90 | +1.4% |
| MSTR | Extreme overbought | 98th | $168.50 | +23.0% |
Most oversold
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADC | Extreme oversold | 0th | $67.62 | -4.5% |
| O | Extreme oversold | 0th | $56.65 | -4.4% |
| UDR | Extreme oversold | 0th | $33.89 | -3.8% |
What's happened after this before
| Ticker | Next 3 Days | Next 7 Days | Next 30 Days | Prior Times |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UDR | 58% · +0.3% | 60% · +0.7% | 63% · +2.0% | 496 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 60% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| O | 56% · +0.5% | 58% · +0.7% | 64% · +2.2% | 472 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 59% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| ADC | 57% · +0.4% | 57% · +0.5% | 58% · +1.5% | 459 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 58% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| META | 52% · +0.5% | 51% · +0.6% | 66% · +3.3% | 228 |
| it kept going — higher 56% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| CHT | 47% · -0.0% | 54% · +0.2% | 64% · +1.0% | 428 |
| it kept going — higher 55% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| MSTR | 53% · +1.3% | 54% · +1.3% | 58% · +5.4% | 440 |
| it kept going — higher 55% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.
Worth sitting with: META, CHT, MSTR are on this list for being at an extreme, and their own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.
The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.
Three refiners in one session: MPC lost the $425 round, and VLO and DINO were both knocked back off 52-week highs. MPC and DINO are the same story told twice, since both broke out to new highs last week and gave the whole thing back inside four sessions. What keeps that from reading as a top is DINO's own record after this exact rejection, a median +1.41% over the following five days, which is better than the pooled all-stocks, all-52-week-high number sitting beside it.
MPC broke below a round number at $425.00 (closed -5.3% through it).
Across 190,696 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.
Also at a level
HMY broke below a round number at $20.00 (closed -5.0% through it).
MXL got rejected at a swing high at $89.00.
SNDK got rejected at a swing high at $1827.99.
MOS bounced off its volume shelf at $23.10.
DINO got rejected at its 52-week high at $117.70.
VLO got rejected at its 52-week high at $416.66.
The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.
META shows up in both of today's technical blocks, extreme overbought up top and accelerating down here, which is one observation wearing two hats: the range is widening because the stock is running, and its own overbought history has it higher a month later about two times in three. The strange line is at the other end of the list, where MKTX has gone so quiet that its three-day range is down to a quarter of its normal month.
Speeding up
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| WBD | 2.57× | $30.80 | +9.6% |
| AMRX | 2.07× | $20.16 | +17.1% |
| PSKY | 1.87× | $9.91 | -8.4% |
| META | 1.85× | $741.24 | +11.4% |
| MPC | 1.60× | $402.38 | +1.5% |
When stocks are speeding up, check the options pricing. Cheap options on stocks that are accelerating create a directional edge.
Slowing down
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| MKTX | 0.24× | $163.44 | +0.2% |
| TECH | 0.36× | $72.47 | +0.3% |
| EIX | 0.51× | $54.95 | -2.1% |
| AAON | 0.56× | $76.40 | +1.1% |
| DKS | 0.56× | $123.63 | -5.5% |
When stocks are slowing down, check the options pricing. Expensive options on slowing stocks create an income edge.
Short vs long ATR = 3-day against 27-day average true range; above 1× the daily ranges are widening, below 1× they're compressing.
Manhattan Associates has owned September 22 for most of this century, and the part worth more than the hit rate is how polite the bad years were: the worst this date has ever handed it is -2.69%, back in 2004. The rest of the week is a blank page, with nothing in the next seven days clearing the floor, so this is a one-day record rather than a run into month-end.
MANH has the strongest typical showing for Sep 22 in our universe since 2000: up 14 of 18 years (78%), with a median move of +0.77% (average +0.83%). Best year +4.5% (2000); worst -2.7% (2004).
The Seasonal Watchlist
The seasonal board is quiet for Sep 23 – Sep 29.
The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.
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