2026-09-21
Everything on this card is something breaking or something failing, and the one carrying real history is Sterling, which lost the 500 round twice last week and was back above it by Friday. When this name has done that before, the five sessions after came in at +1.72% at the median, which is a long way from what the average stock gets out of the same event.
FAF broke below a swing low at $71.22 (closed -2.3% through it).
Across 102,630 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.
Also at a level
LEN broke below a round number at $80.00 (closed -4.5% through it).
ALKS broke below a round number at $45.00 (closed -3.6% through it).
CLF got rejected at a swing high at $12.85.
DELL got rejected at its 52-week high at $593.98.
NET got rejected at its 52-week high at $336.90.
STRL bounced off a round number at $500.00.
The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.
Two of the three names clearing this window are simply a date on the calendar. AutoZone is the odd one, because its window opens tomorrow morning with an earnings report inside it, which is a different animal wearing the same costume. Lockheed is the clean version, nothing scheduled in the week at all, and the worst Sep 22 to 28 it has had since 2000 cost 6.33%.
DSGX has the strongest typical showing for Sep 21 in our universe since 2000: up 14 of 18 years (78%), with a median move of +1.20% (average +1.48%). Best year +7.1% (2005); worst -2.6% (2023).
LMT has the strongest typical showing over the next 5 trading sessions from Sep 21 in our universe since 2000: up 20 of 26 years (77%), with a median move of +1.73% (average +1.31%). Best year +6.0% (2000); worst -6.3% (2003).
The Seasonal Watchlist
The names that have owned Sep 22 – Sep 28, year after year:
| Ticker | Hit rate | Median | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| LMT | 77% | +1.73% | 26 yrs |
| AZO | 81% | +1.17% | 26 yrs |
| AIZ | 77% | +1.01% | 22 yrs |
The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.
Paychex is the strange line here. It beats far more often than it misses and the median reaction to a beat is still negative, so there is nothing left to win on the upside, while a miss has historically cost 4.2% on the day.
The biggest names reporting in the next 7 days — and what each has typically done on report day:
| Thu Sep 24 | COST | $426B | after close | median swing ±1.4% over 95 reports; typically +0.1% on a beat, -1.3% on a miss |
| Wed Sep 23 | CTAS | $79.8B | before open | median swing ±2.9% over 107 reports; typically +1.2% on a beat, -2.0% on a miss |
| Tue Sep 22 | AZO | $50.1B | before open | median swing ±2.1% over 97 reports; typically +0.4% on a beat, -0.1% on a miss |
| Wed Sep 23 | PAYX | $43.4B | before open | median swing ±2.7% over 107 reports; typically -0.3% on a beat, -4.2% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 24 | DRI | $25.6B | before open | median swing ±3.2% over 107 reports; typically +1.3% on a beat, -3.8% on a miss |
| Wed Sep 23 | GIS | $21.0B | before open | median swing ±1.9% over 107 reports; typically +0.7% on a beat, -3.3% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 24 | SNX | $20.7B | before open | median swing ±5.8% over 91 reports; typically +1.2% on a beat, -5.5% on a miss |
| Wed Sep 23 | UEC | $5.5B | time not announced | median swing ±3.3% over 75 reports; typically +0.9% on a beat, -1.0% on a miss |
| Mon Sep 21 | GRFS | $5.3B | time not announced | median swing ±2.1% over 61 reports; typically +1.5% on a beat, +0.1% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 24 | BB | $5.2B | before open | median swing ±8.8% over 107 reports; typically +1.7% on a beat, -5.8% on a miss |
Johnson & Johnson is the last place you would go looking for expensive options, and here its implied number is sitting at the ceiling of its own range while the shares have been shuffling along at 17.6% realized over the past month. Someone is paying up for a move the stock has not been making.
JNJ options are the day's outlier: pricing at the 100th percentile of their own last 36 sessions (ATM implied vol 27%, which is 1.51× what the stock has actually been moving). Rich options on one name are sellers' territory, if the story fits.
Get issues like this by email: