2026-09-18
Being pinned at an extreme means something different depending on which name is wearing it. META and MPC have both been up here many times before and the month afterwards is where their money historically got made, so on their own records this is not the spot to fight; RVTY is the one that looks different, up 21% in five sessions into a reading it has reached plenty of times without going much of anywhere afterwards. On the beaten-up side the ordering is backwards from how it looks: TXRH, down hard, is the one with a real bounce behind it, while ADC sits at the very bottom of its own year and historically does the least with it.
Most overbought
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| META | Extreme overbought | 100th | $682.31 | +5.9% |
| MPC | Extreme overbought | 99th | $421.96 | +7.5% |
| RVTY | Extreme overbought | 99th | $146.73 | +21.3% |
Most oversold
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADC | Extreme oversold | 0th | $68.16 | -4.7% |
| TXRH | Extreme oversold | 0th | $166.79 | -7.9% |
| MGM | Extreme oversold | 0th | $38.31 | -5.9% |
What's happened after this before
| Ticker | Next 3 Days | Next 7 Days | Next 30 Days | Prior Times |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXRH | 61% · +1.0% | 60% · +1.3% | 58% · +2.2% | 400 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 60% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| ADC | 57% · +0.4% | 57% · +0.5% | 59% · +1.5% | 458 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 58% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| MPC | 54% · +0.4% | 59% · +1.0% | 59% · +2.3% | 288 |
| it kept going — higher 58% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| META | 52% · +0.5% | 51% · +0.6% | 66% · +3.3% | 228 |
| it kept going — higher 56% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| MGM | 53% · +0.3% | 55% · +0.7% | 55% · +1.5% | 496 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 54% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| RVTY | 49% · +0.1% | 52% · +0.3% | 57% · +1.3% | 455 |
| a coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.
Worth sitting with: MPC, META are on this list for being at an extreme, and their own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.
The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.
AN's line here and AN in the volatility block below are the same Thursday, not two separate stories, and that one session went through the swing low and its 52-week low together. The item with an actual record behind it is CRM losing the $250 round, because Salesforce has broken big round numbers before and the five days after have leaned to a bounce rather than a continuation, a median near +1.4% against a universe of round-number breaks that goes roughly nowhere.
AN broke below a swing low at $192.00 (closed -8.9% through it).
Across 102,616 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.
Also at a level
TMUS broke below a swing low at $174.19 (closed -4.4% through it).
VZ broke below a round number at $50.00 (closed -3.3% through it).
CRM broke below a round number at $250.00 (closed -2.9% through it).
GNRC got rejected at a swing high at $226.00.
AMRX got rejected at a swing high at $19.26.
PTC bounced off a round number at $130.00.
The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.
GNRC and AN are both on this list for violent ranges and their situations have nothing in common. GNRC lost the $180 round on Monday and took it straight back on Thursday while getting turned away at its old swing high, so the range is a fight over the same level rather than a trend; AN's range came from one session that broke the swing low, the $190 round and its 52-week low at once, which is the version of this list you can't call a whipsaw. At the other end MKTX has gone quiet enough that its three-day range is about a fifth of its monthly one.
Speeding up
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| GNRC | 2.10× | $207.23 | +14.1% |
| AN | 1.98× | $174.88 | -15.6% |
| SWKS | 1.72× | $91.32 | +8.7% |
| CHT | 1.59× | $45.72 | +2.7% |
| AMRX | 1.59× | $18.28 | +8.4% |
When stocks are speeding up, check the options pricing. Cheap options on stocks that are accelerating create a directional edge.
Slowing down
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| MKTX | 0.19× | $163.32 | +0.1% |
| TECH | 0.36× | $72.41 | +0.5% |
| FRHC | 0.53× | $164.71 | +1.2% |
| GRFS | 0.56× | $7.40 | -3.3% |
| HRL | 0.58× | $20.76 | -0.4% |
When stocks are slowing down, check the options pricing. Expensive options on slowing stocks create an income edge.
Short vs long ATR = 3-day against 27-day average true range; above 1× the daily ranges are widening, below 1× they're compressing.
The one worth your attention is PAYX, Wednesday before the open, because it beats in the overwhelming majority of its quarters and the typical payoff for a beat is a red close of -0.3%. That is what happens when reliability gets fully priced: the beat is the assumption, so clearing the bar earns nothing and the only real move on the board is the punishment for missing it. CTAS reports the same morning with an almost identical beat-to-miss record and does get paid for its beats, which is the tell that the PAYX fade is about expectations rather than about the company.
The biggest names reporting in the next 7 days — and what each has typically done on report day:
| Thu Sep 24 | COST | $426B | after close | median swing ±1.4% over 95 reports; typically +0.1% on a beat, -1.3% on a miss |
| Wed Sep 23 | CTAS | $79.8B | before open | median swing ±2.9% over 107 reports; typically +1.2% on a beat, -2.0% on a miss |
| Tue Sep 22 | AZO | $50.1B | before open | median swing ±2.1% over 97 reports; typically +0.4% on a beat, -0.1% on a miss |
| Wed Sep 23 | PAYX | $43.4B | before open | median swing ±2.7% over 107 reports; typically -0.3% on a beat, -4.2% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 24 | DRI | $25.6B | before open | median swing ±3.2% over 107 reports; typically +1.3% on a beat, -3.8% on a miss |
| Wed Sep 23 | GIS | $21.0B | before open | median swing ±1.9% over 107 reports; typically +0.7% on a beat, -3.3% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 24 | SNX | $20.7B | before open | median swing ±5.8% over 91 reports; typically +1.2% on a beat, -5.5% on a miss |
| Mon Sep 21 | KEP | $15.1B | time not announced | median swing ±1.4% over 65 reports; typically 0.0% on a beat, +0.4% on a miss |
| Tue Sep 22 | AIR | $5.8B | time not announced | median swing ±5.1% over 107 reports; typically +2.0% on a beat, -1.5% on a miss |
| Wed Sep 23 | UEC | $5.5B | time not announced | median swing ±3.3% over 75 reports; typically +0.9% on a beat, -1.0% on a miss |
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