2026-09-16
CASY is on this list because it lost a fifth of its value in five sessions, which is a different animal from TJX and RCL grinding quietly down into the same reading. What the record says about all three is pretty mild: getting this washed out has bought a small drift higher over the following month and close to nothing in the first three days, so the interesting part today is how CASY got here, not what the table promises next.
Most overbought
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHT | Extreme overbought | 100th | $45.37 | +2.6% |
| META | Extreme overbought | 99th | $670.24 | +9.3% |
| SHEL | Extreme overbought | 98th | $98.95 | +3.8% |
Most oversold
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJX | Extreme oversold | 0th | $124.60 | -3.4% |
| CASY | Extreme oversold | 0th | $587.14 | -20.0% |
| RCL | Extreme oversold | 0th | $249.30 | -5.7% |
What's happened after this before
| Ticker | Next 3 Days | Next 7 Days | Next 30 Days | Prior Times |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CASY | 61% · +1.0% | 65% · +1.2% | 69% · +4.0% | 456 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 65% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| TJX | 56% · +0.3% | 60% · +0.6% | 62% · +1.6% | 456 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 59% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| META | 52% · +0.5% | 51% · +0.6% | 66% · +3.3% | 228 |
| it kept going — higher 56% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| SHEL | 58% · +0.1% | 56% · +0.2% | 54% · +0.7% | 452 |
| it kept going — higher 56% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| CHT | 48% · -0.0% | 54% · +0.2% | 64% · +1.0% | 427 |
| it kept going — higher 55% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| RCL | 54% · +0.1% | 53% · +0.1% | 57% · +2.0% | 471 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 54% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.
Worth sitting with: META, SHEL, CHT are on this list for being at an extreme, and their own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.
The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.
IONS went through three things on the same day: its swing low, its 52-week low, and the $50 round. It's also the only name on this card whose own history after a breakdown leans red instead of shrugging, and leans is the right word, because it sits a hair under a coin flip rather than anywhere near a verdict.
IONS broke below a swing low at $50.01 (closed -5.5% through it).
Across 102,519 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.
Also at a level
DLTR broke below a swing low at $116.81 (closed -3.4% through it).
DKS broke below a round number at $130.00 (closed -4.8% through it).
STX broke below a round number at $800.00 (closed -3.5% through it).
IT got rejected at a swing high at $203.03.
BCE got rejected at a swing high at $23.62.
POOL broke below its 52-week low at $171.17 (closed -2.5% through it).
The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.
The loud column keeps being loud, and SWKS is still the engine of it. The quiet column is the stranger one: MKTX is a stock north of $160 whose last three days have averaged a 37-cent range, and it finished the week exactly where it started it.
Speeding up
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| SWKS | 2.13× | $90.00 | +19.4% |
| RVTY | 1.60× | $140.19 | +10.3% |
| UBS | 1.53× | $51.49 | -6.5% |
| SYY | 1.49× | $79.60 | -0.3% |
| JKHY | 1.49× | $154.07 | -3.6% |
When stocks are speeding up, check the options pricing. Cheap options on stocks that are accelerating create a directional edge.
Slowing down
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| MKTX | 0.21× | $163.38 | 0.0% |
| TECH | 0.36× | $72.34 | 0.0% |
| FRHC | 0.57× | $161.81 | -0.1% |
| AXTI | 0.59× | $57.70 | -17.1% |
| CCK | 0.62× | $112.33 | -0.8% |
When stocks are slowing down, check the options pricing. Expensive options on slowing stocks create an income edge.
Short vs long ATR = 3-day against 27-day average true range; above 1× the daily ranges are widening, below 1× they're compressing.
The shape here is better than the win rate. CF's worst September 16 in fifteen years is still smaller than its typical one, just with a minus in front of it, and that worst one landed last year rather than somewhere back in the fog of 2008. Nothing in the week ahead clears the floor, so the date is the whole of it.
CF has the strongest typical showing for Sep 16 in our universe since 2005: up 12 of 15 years (80%), with a median move of +1.18% (average +1.62%). Best year +13.0% (2008); worst -1.2% (2025).
The Seasonal Watchlist
The seasonal board is quiet for Sep 17 – Sep 23.
The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.
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