2026-09-15
CRM made the overbought list while moving one tenth of a percent in five sessions. Being stretched on a chart that hasn't gone anywhere is its own animal, and CRM is the only name on this card whose own history after a reading like this points lower afterwards.
Most overbought
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHT | Extreme overbought | 100th | $45.25 | +3.3% |
| META | Extreme overbought | 99th | $665.60 | +7.9% |
| CRM | Extreme overbought | 96th | $259.43 | +0.1% |
Most oversold
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCL | Extreme oversold | 0th | $255.34 | -3.7% |
| HEI | Extreme oversold | 0th | $303.75 | -6.7% |
| PNR | Extreme oversold | 0th | $56.18 | -6.7% |
What's happened after this before
| Ticker | Next 3 Days | Next 7 Days | Next 30 Days | Prior Times |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HEI | 55% · +0.3% | 57% · +0.8% | 61% · +3.2% | 435 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 58% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| META | 52% · +0.5% | 51% · +0.6% | 66% · +3.3% | 228 |
| it kept going — higher 56% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| CHT | 48% · -0.0% | 54% · +0.2% | 64% · +1.0% | 427 |
| it kept going — higher 55% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| RCL | 54% · +0.1% | 53% · +0.1% | 57% · +2.0% | 471 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 54% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| PNR | 51% · +0.2% | 53% · +0.4% | 55% · +1.4% | 466 |
| a coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
| CRM | 43% · -0.3% | 49% · -0.2% | 57% · +1.1% | 393 |
| a coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.
Worth sitting with: META, CHT are on this list for being at an extreme, and their own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.
The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.
VLO is the one worth knowing here. It broke out to a fresh 52-week high on Sept 8 and has spent every session since getting slapped back from the $400 round number, and while a rejection at a yearly high reads like failure, VLO's own record of them has the stock higher a week later more often than not, in what is currently the strongest sector on the board.
SIMO broke below a round number at $275.00 (closed -13.9% through it).
Across 190,228 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.
Also at a level
COHR broke below a round number at $300.00 (closed -11.2% through it).
VLO got rejected at its 52-week high at $399.26.
LII bounced off a round number at $350.00.
FIS got rejected at a round number at $40.00.
IT broke above a round number at $180.00 (closed +9.5% through it).
PANW broke above a round number at $350.00 (closed +6.8% through it).
The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.
Speed says nothing about direction: SWKS doubled its trading range on the way up, and COO earned the same spot on the list by falling out a window. The one I'd keep an eye on is HPE, accelerating upward, where insiders quietly bought about $3.9 million of stock over the summer before any of this turned up in the range.
Speeding up
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| SWKS | 1.97× | $79.26 | +7.1% |
| COO | 1.72× | $54.22 | -22.1% |
| BAC | 1.71× | $59.47 | -5.1% |
| HPE | 1.67× | $55.41 | +6.6% |
| M | 1.52× | $22.58 | -2.0% |
When stocks are speeding up, check the options pricing. Cheap options on stocks that are accelerating create a directional edge.
Slowing down
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| MKTX | 0.22× | $163.10 | -0.2% |
| TECH | 0.37× | $72.27 | -0.2% |
| FRHC | 0.57× | $165.34 | +0.5% |
| CACC | 0.62× | $605.36 | +0.1% |
| CW | 0.62× | $551.21 | -2.7% |
When stocks are slowing down, check the options pricing. Expensive options on slowing stocks create an income edge.
Short vs long ATR = 3-day against 27-day average true range; above 1× the daily ranges are widening, below 1× they're compressing.
Energy has been the best sector on the board for a month, so nobody should be shocked that XOM options got bid up to the top of their range. The part that's odd is the stock underneath: it has only been moving about 23%, which is a good deal calmer than what the options are charging for.
XOM options are the day's outlier: pricing at the 100th percentile of their own last 30 sessions (ATM implied vol 30%, which is 1.32× what the stock has actually been moving). Rich options on one name are sellers' territory, if the story fits.
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