2026-09-14
SWKS sits at the top of its own year's range after the week it just had, and the thing an RSI reading can't tell you is what kind of company is wearing it: two up years out of the last ten. Going back over the whole history, extreme overbought on a name with a record like that was a slightly lower price five days later, which makes it a very different animal from the beaten-up half of this card.
Most overbought
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWKS | Extreme overbought | 100th | $88.35 | +23.6% |
| CHT | Extreme overbought | 100th | $44.85 | +2.5% |
| META | Extreme overbought | 98th | $648.03 | +6.1% |
Most oversold
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COO | Extreme oversold | 0th | $53.91 | -23.7% |
| CASY | Extreme oversold | 0th | $615.47 | -18.8% |
| ODFL | Extreme oversold | 0th | $179.79 | -3.2% |
What's happened after this before
| Ticker | Next 3 Days | Next 7 Days | Next 30 Days | Prior Times |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CASY | 61% · +1.0% | 65% · +1.2% | 69% · +4.0% | 456 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 65% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| ODFL | 59% · +1.2% | 60% · +1.4% | 68% · +4.5% | 448 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 62% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| META | 52% · +0.5% | 51% · +0.6% | 66% · +3.3% | 228 |
| it kept going — higher 56% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| COO | 53% · +0.1% | 54% · +0.2% | 59% · +1.6% | 463 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 55% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| CHT | 48% · -0.0% | 54% · +0.2% | 64% · +1.0% | 427 |
| it kept going — higher 55% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| SWKS | 50% · -0.1% | 52% · +0.1% | 55% · +2.1% | 482 |
| a coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.
Worth sitting with: META, CHT are on this list for being at an extreme, and their own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.
The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.
The name with the best September 14th record is the same one flagged as the most stretched stock in the block above, so the calendar and the tape are openly disagreeing today. The week after belongs to Allstate, and the funniest line on that card is the best year: 2008, which is an odd year for an insurance company to have owned a week of September.
SWKS has the strongest typical showing for Sep 14 in our universe since 2000: up 13 of 17 years (76%), with a median move of +1.41% (average +1.27%). Best year +9.5% (2006); worst -3.7% (2005).
ALL has the strongest typical showing over the next 5 trading sessions from Sep 14 in our universe since 2000: up 21 of 26 years (81%), with a median move of +2.06% (average +1.37%). Best year +6.7% (2008); worst -8.4% (2011).
The Seasonal Watchlist
The names that have owned Sep 15 – Sep 21, year after year:
| Ticker | Hit rate | Median | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALL | 81% | +2.06% | 26 yrs |
The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.
SNDK has now done all three things you can do to a round number inside six sessions: up through 1,600 on the 4th, turned away at 1,800 on the 8th, then losing 1,700 on Friday. The strange part is that the breakdown is the most bullish line in this whole set, because SNDK's own history after giving up a round number runs a median +4.9% over the following week, roughly ten times what the average name does after the same event.
SNDK broke below a round number at $1700.00 (closed -3.9% through it).
Across 190,188 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.
Also at a level
STX broke below a round number at $850.00 (closed -2.3% through it).
PIPR got rejected at a swing high at $78.59.
TVTX got rejected at its 52-week high at $68.59.
DINO got rejected at its 52-week high at $110.92.
AVAV bounced off a round number at $140.00.
AMD bounced off a round number at $500.00.
The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.
Union Pacific's implied vol is at the exact floor of its own range, zero percentile, and it's asking barely more than the stock has actually been moving over the past month. Nothing on the earnings calendar in the way this week either, which is the boring reason options get priced like this.
UNP options are the day's outlier: pricing at the 0th percentile of their own last 29 sessions (ATM implied vol 21%, which is 1.09× what the stock has actually been moving). Cheap options on one name are worth a look if you were already watching it.
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