2026-09-13
Three washouts on the board and only one of them has a history of paying for the pain: CASY, cut by nearly 19% in a week, is the only name here whose own record bounces with any conviction over the following month. COO has been parked in this section all week and the read hasn't changed a bit, which is that the deepest washout on the card buys you a coin flip for three days and not much more.
Most overbought
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWKS | Extreme overbought | 100th | $88.35 | +23.6% |
| CHT | Extreme overbought | 100th | $44.85 | +2.5% |
| META | Extreme overbought | 98th | $648.03 | +6.1% |
Most oversold
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COO | Extreme oversold | 0th | $53.91 | -23.7% |
| CASY | Extreme oversold | 0th | $615.47 | -18.8% |
| ODFL | Extreme oversold | 0th | $179.79 | -3.2% |
What's happened after this before
| Ticker | Next 3 Days | Next 7 Days | Next 30 Days | Prior Times |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CASY | 61% · +1.0% | 65% · +1.2% | 69% · +4.0% | 456 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 65% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| ODFL | 59% · +1.2% | 60% · +1.4% | 68% · +4.5% | 448 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 62% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| META | 52% · +0.5% | 51% · +0.6% | 66% · +3.3% | 228 |
| it kept going — higher 56% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| COO | 53% · +0.1% | 54% · +0.2% | 59% · +1.6% | 463 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 55% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| CHT | 48% · -0.0% | 54% · +0.2% | 64% · +1.0% | 427 |
| it kept going — higher 55% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| SWKS | 50% · -0.1% | 52% · +0.1% | 55% · +2.1% | 482 |
| a coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.
Worth sitting with: META, CHT are on this list for being at an extreme, and their own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.
The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.
Still Blackstone for the week ahead, with the record updated: the worst of those nineteen Septembers cost 4.65%, and the single 2008 run through the same dates paid that back roughly four times over, which is a strange thing to say about the week Lehman filed. A seasonal that survives its own worst year by that margin is the rare one that doesn't need its best year to stay standing.
BX has the strongest typical showing over the next 5 trading sessions from Sep 13 in our universe since 2007: up 16 of 19 years (84%), with a median move of +2.66% (average +3.39%). Best year +18.2% (2008); worst -4.6% (2021).
The Seasonal Watchlist
The names that have owned Sep 14 – Sep 20, year after year:
| Ticker | Hit rate | Median | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| BX | 84% | +2.66% | 19 yrs |
| WBD | 76% | +2.01% | 21 yrs |
The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.
The one worth your time is SNDK giving up $1,700. That 4.91% five-day median is SNDK's own history of breaking round numbers, not the all-names base rate sitting beside it, and it runs better than ten times what a round-number break has been worth across the whole database. A breakdown is supposed to be bad news; for this one it has mostly been the bottom.
SNDK broke below a round number at $1700.00 (closed -3.9% through it).
Across 190,188 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.
Also at a level
STX broke below a round number at $850.00 (closed -2.3% through it).
PIPR got rejected at a swing high at $78.59.
TVTX got rejected at its 52-week high at $68.59.
DINO got rejected at its 52-week high at $110.92.
AVAV bounced off a round number at $140.00.
AMD bounced off a round number at $500.00.
The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.
NVDA's options are the cheapest they have been in the whole history we hold for it, and that is happening while the stock itself has been moving at better than a 43% clip. The market is charging less for movement than the stock has been delivering, which is a condition for buying premium rather than writing it.
NVDA options are the day's outlier: pricing at the 0th percentile of their own last 28 sessions (ATM implied vol 31%, which is 0.70× what the stock has actually been moving). Cheap options on one name are worth a look if you were already watching it.
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