2026-09-12
COO didn't just get beaten up, it fell through its 52-week low on Sep 10, so what you're looking at is a breakdown rather than a dip. And its own history after readings this washed out says the following three days have been worth about a tenth of a percent, which is to say nothing at all; CASY fell less and has been the one that actually pays you for showing up.
Most overbought
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWKS | Extreme overbought | 100th | $88.35 | +23.6% |
| CHT | Extreme overbought | 100th | $44.85 | +2.5% |
| META | Extreme overbought | 98th | $648.03 | +6.1% |
Most oversold
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COO | Extreme oversold | 0th | $53.91 | -23.7% |
| CASY | Extreme oversold | 0th | $615.47 | -18.8% |
| ODFL | Extreme oversold | 0th | $179.79 | -3.2% |
What's happened after this before
| Ticker | Next 3 Days | Next 7 Days | Next 30 Days | Prior Times |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CASY | 61% · +1.0% | 65% · +1.2% | 69% · +4.0% | 456 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 65% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| ODFL | 59% · +1.2% | 60% · +1.4% | 68% · +4.5% | 448 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 62% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| META | 52% · +0.5% | 51% · +0.6% | 66% · +3.3% | 228 |
| it kept going — higher 56% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| COO | 53% · +0.1% | 54% · +0.2% | 59% · +1.6% | 463 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 55% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| CHT | 48% · -0.0% | 54% · +0.2% | 64% · +1.0% | 427 |
| it kept going — higher 55% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| SWKS | 50% · -0.1% | 52% · +0.1% | 55% · +2.1% | 482 |
| a coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.
Worth sitting with: META, CHT are on this list for being at an extreme, and their own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.
The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.
Blackstone owns the week ahead, and the punchline is when it owned it best: 2008, the same week Lehman filed. The losing years barely register either, with the worst trip through this window costing 1.67%, which for a private-equity stock across two decades is a stranger number than the hit rate.
COF has the strongest typical showing for Sep 12 in our universe since 2000: up 15 of 19 years (79%), with a median move of +1.15% (average +0.75%). Best year +4.9% (2006); worst -4.7% (2002).
BX has the strongest typical showing over the next 5 trading sessions from Sep 12 in our universe since 2007: up 17 of 19 years (89%), with a median move of +3.20% (average +4.66%). Best year +18.2% (2008); worst -1.7% (2022).
The Seasonal Watchlist
The names that have owned Sep 13 – Sep 19, year after year:
| Ticker | Hit rate | Median | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| BX | 89% | +3.20% | 19 yrs |
| CF | 76% | +3.15% | 21 yrs |
| WBD | 81% | +3.01% | 21 yrs |
| NXST | 77% | +2.92% | 22 yrs |
| GM | 93% | +2.26% | 15 yrs |
| TRGP | 87% | +2.15% | 15 yrs |
The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.
One of these fell 23.7% in five sessions and the other rose 23.6%, and they sit one and two on the same list, because range expansion doesn't care which direction you're travelling. The tell on SWKS is where the run stopped: it cleared $70 on Sep 2, added 17.2% over the next five sessions, then got turned back at $90 yesterday.
Speeding up
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| COO | 2.23× | $53.91 | -23.7% |
| SWKS | 1.83× | $88.35 | +23.6% |
| HDB | 1.59× | $23.34 | +0.3% |
| HPQ | 1.56× | $35.48 | +12.1% |
| WF | 1.53× | $78.87 | +2.0% |
When stocks are speeding up, check the options pricing. Cheap options on stocks that are accelerating create a directional edge.
Slowing down
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| MKTX | 0.20× | $163.00 | -0.2% |
| TECH | 0.38× | $72.12 | -0.5% |
| FN | 0.49× | $414.58 | +5.0% |
| RMBS | 0.52× | $86.97 | +3.1% |
| STM | 0.52× | $51.51 | +0.4% |
When stocks are slowing down, check the options pricing. Expensive options on slowing stocks create an income edge.
Short vs long ATR = 3-day against 27-day average true range; above 1× the daily ranges are widening, below 1× they're compressing.
Nothing about MSFT options is cheap this morning: implied vol is sitting at the very top of its own range, a round 100, while the stock underneath has spent the last month moving less than the options are charging for. Rich premium on a megacap that has been behaving itself is an unusual combination.
MSFT options are the day's outlier: pricing at the 100th percentile of their own last 27 sessions (ATM implied vol 27%, which is 1.22× what the stock has actually been moving). Rich options on one name are sellers' territory, if the story fits.
Get issues like this by email: