2026-09-11
Same label on both, opposite histories underneath it: when CASY has been beaten up this hard, buyers have shown up, and when COO has, nobody has bothered. COO's washouts have paid back about a quarter of a percent over the following week, which is another way of saying the market has looked at that hole and shrugged. How far a stock fell tells you nothing about who wants it afterwards.
Most overbought
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWKS | Extreme overbought | 100th | $84.03 | +17.2% |
| CHT | Extreme overbought | 100th | $44.53 | +2.4% |
| META | Extreme overbought | 97th | $644.38 | +8.7% |
Most oversold
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COO | Extreme oversold | 0th | $54.17 | -22.3% |
| CASY | Extreme oversold | 0th | $627.64 | -16.7% |
| FER | Extreme oversold | 0th | $55.50 | -4.0% |
What's happened after this before
| Ticker | Next 3 Days | Next 7 Days | Next 30 Days | Prior Times |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FER | 56% · +1.0% | 69% · +1.7% | 69% · +4.4% | 39 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 65% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| CASY | 61% · +1.0% | 65% · +1.2% | 69% · +4.0% | 456 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 65% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| META | 52% · +0.5% | 51% · +0.6% | 66% · +3.3% | 228 |
| it kept going — higher 56% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| COO | 53% · +0.1% | 54% · +0.2% | 59% · +1.6% | 463 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 55% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| CHT | 48% · -0.0% | 54% · +0.2% | 64% · +1.0% | 427 |
| it kept going — higher 55% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| SWKS | 50% · -0.1% | 52% · +0.1% | 55% · +2.1% | 482 |
| a coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.
Worth sitting with: META, CHT are on this list for being at an extreme, and their own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.
The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.
Two different claims here, so keep them apart: LYV owns today, September 11 by itself, and the worst one it has had cost 0.64%. The week that starts tomorrow belongs to Blackstone instead, and not one of those Septembers had an earnings report sitting inside the window, so that record is the calendar rather than a reaction to a print wearing calendar clothes.
LYV has the strongest typical showing for Sep 11 in our universe since 2006: up 14 of 15 years (93%), with a median move of +1.79% (average +2.10%). Best year +8.1% (2008); worst -0.6% (2014).
BX has the strongest typical showing over the next 5 trading sessions from Sep 11 in our universe since 2007: up 17 of 19 years (89%), with a median move of +3.83% (average +4.49%). Best year +16.3% (2011); worst -8.3% (2022).
The Seasonal Watchlist
The names that have owned Sep 12 – Sep 18, year after year:
| Ticker | Hit rate | Median | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| BX | 89% | +3.83% | 19 yrs |
| MRCY | 77% | +3.22% | 26 yrs |
| TRGP | 87% | +2.52% | 15 yrs |
| GM | 80% | +2.43% | 15 yrs |
The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.
LEN took out its swing low and its 52-week low in the same session, and its own history of breaking down like that has been bought back inside a week more often than the average breakdown gets bought. The complication is real: it reports Tuesday evening, in the middle of those five sessions, and a 3.5% typical report-day swing is roughly three times the size of the bounce that pattern usually delivers, so the print decides this one and not the level. Of the two rejections on the card, CNC's record at that high is the friendly one; IBM's version of this has usually kept going down.
LEN broke below a swing low at $79.82 (closed -2.4% through it).
Across 102,460 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.
Also at a level
M broke below its volume shelf at $21.54 (closed -4.8% through it).
AGNC broke below its volume shelf at $10.49 (closed -2.8% through it).
COO broke below a round number at $60.00 (closed -9.7% through it).
TECK broke below a round number at $70.00 (closed -5.9% through it).
CNC got rejected at a swing high at $68.38.
IBM got rejected at a swing high at $241.80.
The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.
I went looking for a name that turns up on more than one card today, and COO is on three of them: beaten up, straight through the $60 round, and now swinging at nearly three times the pace it kept a month ago. MKTX sits at the other end having almost stopped moving, which is the boring half of this card right up until it isn't.
Speeding up
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| COO | 2.79× | $54.17 | -22.3% |
| CASY | 1.71× | $627.64 | -16.7% |
| SWKS | 1.66× | $84.03 | +17.2% |
| SSL | 1.59× | $14.65 | +15.5% |
| TECK | 1.52× | $65.90 | -1.7% |
When stocks are speeding up, check the options pricing. Cheap options on stocks that are accelerating create a directional edge.
Slowing down
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| MKTX | 0.19× | $163.09 | +0.2% |
| TECH | 0.31× | $72.08 | -0.3% |
| VSH | 0.45× | $31.29 | +2.5% |
| FN | 0.48× | $403.95 | +2.2% |
| KLIC | 0.49× | $82.97 | +5.1% |
When stocks are slowing down, check the options pricing. Expensive options on slowing stocks create an income edge.
Short vs long ATR = 3-day against 27-day average true range; above 1× the daily ranges are widening, below 1× they're compressing.
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