2026-09-10
Seven levels gave way and only one of these names has a history that says anything: WTW lost a swing low, and when WTW has broken down before, it was higher a week later about 77% of the time. AON handed back the same kind of level on the same day and its own record of doing that is a coin flip, which is the useful part. "Broke support" is a description of what happened, not a forecast of what comes next, and the two brokers sitting side by side on this card prove it.
WTW broke below a swing low at $325.66 (closed -3.7% through it).
Across 102,438 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.
Also at a level
AON broke below a swing low at $312.90 (closed -2.6% through it).
CELH broke below its volume shelf at $29.08 (closed -4.9% through it).
CASY broke below a round number at $700.00 (closed -10.1% through it).
TTMI broke below a round number at $130.00 (closed -4.4% through it).
NOK got rejected at a swing high at $11.13.
TVTX got rejected at its 52-week high at $68.03.
The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.
Four of the five fastest-moving names on this board are moving down, so what the top half is really measuring is people getting out. CASY is the case study, and the part worth filing away is where the damage began: it broke up through $750 on September 1, which turned out to be the high, and it spent this week breaking down through $700 instead.
Speeding up
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| CASY | 2.09× | $629.03 | -18.0% |
| SSL | 1.94× | $14.58 | +17.1% |
| NVS | 1.93× | $137.48 | -14.7% |
| COO | 1.65× | $63.48 | -8.4% |
| ORA | 1.61× | $98.81 | -7.9% |
When stocks are speeding up, check the options pricing. Cheap options on stocks that are accelerating create a directional edge.
Slowing down
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| MKTX | 0.19× | $163.26 | +0.4% |
| TECH | 0.26× | $72.25 | +0.1% |
| VSH | 0.45× | $31.69 | +7.0% |
| FN | 0.47× | $418.27 | +4.0% |
| KLIC | 0.48× | $83.78 | +7.4% |
When stocks are slowing down, check the options pricing. Expensive options on slowing stocks create an income edge.
Short vs long ATR = 3-day against 27-day average true range; above 1× the daily ranges are widening, below 1× they're compressing.
Beating only pays if there was a chance you wouldn't. Trip.com beats nearly every quarter and the median reaction to those beats is -0.7%, so the good quarter is already in the price and the only thing left carrying real news is a miss. Same shape on Adobe tonight, where the stock still swings well over four percent on a result the market has correctly assumed for years.
The biggest names reporting in the next 7 days — and what each has typically done on report day:
| Thu Sep 10 | ORCL | $434B | after close | median swing ±4.3% over 107 reports; typically +1.6% on a beat, -4.0% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 10 | ADBE | $105B | after close | median swing ±4.4% over 107 reports; typically +1.1% on a beat, +3.9% on a miss |
| Fri Sep 11 | KR | $34.5B | before open | median swing ±4.3% over 106 reports; typically +2.0% on a beat, -5.6% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 10 | CPRT | $30.5B | after close | median swing ±3.4% over 107 reports; typically +0.7% on a beat, -1.9% on a miss |
| Tue Sep 15 | TCOM | $28.3B | after close | median swing ±5.1% over 90 reports; typically -0.7% on a beat, -4.7% on a miss |
| Wed Sep 16 | LEN | $20.9B | after close | median swing ±3.5% over 107 reports; typically +1.7% on a beat, -1.5% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 10 | DSGX | $6.7B | after close | median swing ±3.8% over 106 reports; typically +2.1% on a beat, -0.4% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 10 | M | $6.2B | before open | median swing ±3.6% over 106 reports; typically +1.3% on a beat, -4.5% on a miss |
SPY is down 1.38% over the last month and nine of the eleven sectors did better than the index did, which tells you this soft patch is industrials and consumer discretionary and not much else. Energy is the only group leading both columns, and over three months it is ten points clear of the market.
Where money has been rotating — the eleven sectors ranked against the S&P 500 over three months:
| Sector | 3-mo vs SPY | 1-mo vs SPY | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | XLE Energy | +10.9 | +9.9 |
| 2 | XLF Financial | +5.4 | +0.1 |
| 3 | XLV Health Care | +4.5 | +0.3 |
| 4 | XLK Technology | +0.3 | +2.2 |
| 5 | XLB Materials | -2.1 | -2.0 |
| 6 | XLC Communication Services | -4.0 | +0.5 |
| 7 | XLP Consumer Staples | -4.3 | -0.9 |
| 8 | XLU Utilities | -5.4 | +0.9 |
| 9 | XLI Industrial | -5.6 | -5.6 |
| 10 | XLRE Real Estate | -6.3 | -0.9 |
| 11 | XLY Consumer Discretionary | -6.4 | -4.6 |
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