2026-09-09
Nothing cleared for today itself, so the part worth your attention is the week that starts tomorrow, and the name sitting on top of it is Tesla. A stock that can drop 7% in an afternoon has never given up more than that across this exact stretch of September, and it has never had an earnings report land inside it either, which makes it a calendar record rather than a repackaged print reaction.
TSLA has the strongest typical showing over the next 5 trading sessions from Sep 9 in our universe since 2010: up 14 of 16 years (88%), with a median move of +4.64% (average +5.61%). Best year +20.3% (2025); worst -6.7% (2014).
The Seasonal Watchlist
The names that have owned Sep 10 – Sep 16, year after year:
| Ticker | Hit rate | Median | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA | 88% | +4.64% | 16 yrs |
| BX | 84% | +3.90% | 19 yrs |
| WBD | 81% | +3.30% | 21 yrs |
| EVR | 80% | +3.17% | 20 yrs |
| RUSHB | 77% | +2.99% | 26 yrs |
| CW | 77% | +2.69% | 26 yrs |
The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.
These three beaten-up names are not the same animal. MAR and HEI got knocked back inside their ranges; TJX broke its 52-week low outright on Sep 8, at 130.15, then got rejected trying to reclaim $130. A washed-out reading in the middle of a range is a pullback, and the same reading at fresh lows is a stock that nobody has found a floor for yet.
Most overbought
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHT | Extreme overbought | 100th | $44.23 | +2.4% |
| MOS | Extreme overbought | 99th | $26.53 | +10.0% |
| MPC | Extreme overbought | 99th | $397.77 | +6.5% |
Most oversold
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJX | Extreme oversold | 0th | $128.92 | -3.7% |
| MAR | Extreme oversold | 0th | $328.79 | -3.8% |
| HEI | Extreme oversold | 0th | $316.10 | -4.5% |
What's happened after this before
| Ticker | Next 3 Days | Next 7 Days | Next 30 Days | Prior Times |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJX | 56% · +0.3% | 61% · +0.7% | 62% · +1.8% | 453 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 60% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| HEI | 55% · +0.3% | 57% · +0.8% | 61% · +3.2% | 435 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 58% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| MAR | 57% · +0.6% | 60% · +0.9% | 56% · +1.5% | 490 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 58% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| MPC | 54% · +0.4% | 59% · +1.0% | 59% · +2.2% | 286 |
| it kept going — higher 57% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| CHT | 48% · -0.0% | 54% · +0.2% | 64% · +1.0% | 427 |
| it kept going — higher 55% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| MOS | 49% · -0.2% | 48% · -0.2% | 50% · +0.5% | 493 |
| a coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.
Worth sitting with: MPC, CHT are on this list for being at an extreme, and their own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.
The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.
Everybody reads a card like this for who beats. Read what the beat pays instead: TCOM beats quarter after quarter and still tends to finish the report day lower, a median of -0.7% when it beats. When the beat is that expected it is already in the price, and the whole move is waiting on the miss side.
The biggest names reporting in the next 7 days — and what each has typically done on report day:
| Thu Sep 10 | ORCL | $434B | after close | median swing ±4.3% over 107 reports; typically +1.6% on a beat, -4.0% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 10 | ADBE | $105B | after close | median swing ±4.4% over 107 reports; typically +1.1% on a beat, +3.9% on a miss |
| Fri Sep 11 | KR | $34.5B | before open | median swing ±4.3% over 106 reports; typically +2.0% on a beat, -5.6% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 10 | CPRT | $30.5B | after close | median swing ±3.4% over 107 reports; typically +0.7% on a beat, -1.9% on a miss |
| Tue Sep 15 | TCOM | $28.3B | after close | median swing ±5.1% over 90 reports; typically -0.7% on a beat, -4.7% on a miss |
| Wed Sep 9 | COO | $14.9B | after close | median swing ±4.4% over 107 reports; typically +1.8% on a beat, -3.0% on a miss |
| Wed Sep 9 | AVAV | $9.8B | after close | median swing ±7.8% over 78 reports; typically +4.3% on a beat, -5.2% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 10 | DSGX | $6.7B | after close | median swing ±3.8% over 106 reports; typically +2.1% on a beat, -0.4% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 10 | M | $6.2B | before open | median swing ±3.6% over 106 reports; typically +1.3% on a beat, -4.5% on a miss |
AXP option premium is the richest reading in its record, and the stock itself has not been moving that way; the actual day-to-day travel over the last month is a good seven points of vol below what the options are asking. Worth noting where it happened, too: this is a name that broke up through $325 a week ago and has no earnings report in the window, so the premium is expensive without an event to be expensive about.
AXP options are the day's outlier: pricing at the 100th percentile of their own last 25 sessions (ATM implied vol 25%, which is 1.41× what the stock has actually been moving). Rich options on one name are sellers' territory, if the story fits.
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