2026-09-08
Tesla is on this card for the third time this week and its record hasn't moved an inch, so let me point at the other end of the list instead. Expeditors, the freight forwarder nobody ever brings up, has the politest bad year of the four names here, which matters more than a fat median when the idea is holding a whole week. And NatWest is the fun one: its best Sep 9–15 ever was 2008, up 27% in the week the financial system was coming apart, and the rest of its record doesn't lean on that year at all.
TSLA has the strongest typical showing over the next 5 trading sessions from Sep 8 in our universe since 2010: up 15 of 16 years (94%), with a median move of +4.40% (average +5.55%). Best year +26.1% (2020); worst -10.3% (2014).
The Seasonal Watchlist
The names that have owned Sep 9 – Sep 15, year after year:
| Ticker | Hit rate | Median | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA | 94% | +4.40% | 16 yrs |
| NWG | 78% | +3.96% | 18 yrs |
| WF | 77% | +2.03% | 22 yrs |
| EXPD | 77% | +1.98% | 26 yrs |
The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.
Of everything that broke on Friday, FICO is the only one with a real history sitting behind it, and I'd hold that history loosely here. This is a stock that broke up through $1,100 on Wednesday and was back through its swing low by Thursday, which is not the ordinary, calm-stock break the record is built on. The accelerating list two blocks down is telling you the same thing about it in a different language.
LULU broke below a swing low at $114.69 (closed -12.3% through it).
Across 102,335 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.
Also at a level
FICO broke below a swing low at $1015.00 (closed -8.2% through it).
ADSK broke below its volume shelf at $237.46 (closed -8.2% through it).
TSLA broke below a round number at $375.00 (closed -5.6% through it).
SNOW broke below a round number at $350.00 (closed -3.7% through it).
FLR got rejected at a swing high at $57.93.
MSFT got rejected at a swing high at $512.76.
The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.
The fastest mover on this page is going up, which is not how this list usually reads: AGCO cleared $130 on its way to the biggest five-day gain here, and it did that out of the weakest sector on the whole board. Nothing group-wide explains the other end either, since consumer discretionary is barely 3% behind SPY over the last month, so LULU's drop is LULU's own doing rather than the weather.
Speeding up
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| LULU | 2.12× | $100.61 | -16.7% |
| SNOW | 1.91× | $337.18 | +2.8% |
| FICO | 1.78× | $932.26 | -19.2% |
| PFG | 1.70× | $116.68 | +5.5% |
| AGCO | 1.58× | $133.40 | +17.6% |
When stocks are speeding up, check the options pricing. Cheap options on stocks that are accelerating create a directional edge.
Slowing down
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| MKTX | 0.19× | $163.38 | +0.4% |
| TECH | 0.26× | $72.43 | +0.1% |
| IRDM | 0.46× | $47.21 | +1.3% |
| AMKR | 0.47× | $47.77 | -0.1% |
| RMBS | 0.47× | $85.46 | -0.3% |
When stocks are slowing down, check the options pricing. Expensive options on slowing stocks create an income edge.
Short vs long ATR = 3-day against 27-day average true range; above 1× the daily ranges are widening, below 1× they're compressing.
Read down the beat column and then the miss column and the shape of this card is the same everywhere: being right on the quarter is worth a point or two, being wrong takes four or five off. Adobe looks like the exception with a positive median on a miss, except Adobe has missed three times, ever, so that number is a coincidence with a decimal point on it.
The biggest names reporting in the next 7 days — and what each has typically done on report day:
| Thu Sep 10 | ORCL | $434B | after close | median swing ±4.3% over 107 reports; typically +1.6% on a beat, -4.0% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 10 | ADBE | $105B | after close | median swing ±4.4% over 107 reports; typically +1.1% on a beat, +3.9% on a miss |
| Fri Sep 11 | KR | $34.5B | before open | median swing ±4.3% over 106 reports; typically +2.0% on a beat, -5.6% on a miss |
| Tue Sep 8 | CASY | $31.3B | after close | median swing ±3.9% over 107 reports; typically +2.3% on a beat, -3.4% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 10 | CPRT | $30.5B | after close | median swing ±3.4% over 107 reports; typically +0.7% on a beat, -1.9% on a miss |
| Wed Sep 9 | COO | $14.9B | after close | median swing ±4.4% over 107 reports; typically +1.8% on a beat, -3.0% on a miss |
| Wed Sep 9 | AVAV | $9.8B | after close | median swing ±7.8% over 78 reports; typically +4.3% on a beat, -5.2% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 10 | DSGX | $6.7B | after close | median swing ±3.8% over 106 reports; typically +2.1% on a beat, -0.4% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 10 | M | $6.2B | before open | median swing ±3.6% over 106 reports; typically +1.3% on a beat, -4.5% on a miss |
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