2026-09-07
MKTX at an 85 RSI is the one you would reflexively fade, and its own record after getting this stretched declines to cooperate: out to a month it has averaged higher, not lower. Worth remembering what "extreme" means on this card, which is extreme for that stock, and that's how CHT lands in the same column with an RSI in the sixties.
Most overbought
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MKTX | Extreme overbought | 99th | $163.38 | +0.4% |
| CHT | Extreme overbought | 99th | $43.82 | +1.9% |
| ING | Extreme overbought | 98th | $37.18 | +5.5% |
Most oversold
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXT | Extreme oversold | 0th | $79.07 | -4.8% |
| TRNO | Extreme oversold | 0th | $65.65 | -1.4% |
| CW | Extreme oversold | 1th | $566.75 | -5.0% |
What's happened after this before
| Ticker | Next 3 Days | Next 7 Days | Next 30 Days | Prior Times |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRNO | 62% · +0.3% | 55% · +0.3% | 61% · +2.0% | 259 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 59% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| CW | 53% · +0.4% | 57% · +0.8% | 63% · +2.3% | 463 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 58% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| TXT | 54% · -0.0% | 58% · +0.1% | 59% · +0.8% | 483 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 57% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| MKTX | 54% · +0.3% | 51% · +0.1% | 62% · +1.4% | 374 |
| it kept going — higher 56% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| CHT | 48% · -0.0% | 54% · +0.2% | 64% · +1.0% | 427 |
| it kept going — higher 55% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| ING | 54% · +0.1% | 53% · +0.5% | 56% · +0.9% | 473 |
| it kept going — higher 55% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.
Worth sitting with: MKTX, CHT, ING are on this list for being at an extreme, and their own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.
The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.
AGCO ripping higher and FICO falling nearly 20% register identically here, so this list hands you names in play rather than a direction: FICO's three-day range is still running close to double its normal, which is a stock that hasn't finished doing whatever it is doing. The other end of the card is the strange one. MKTX is at the top of its year in the block above and now moving a fifth as much as it usually does, pinned at the highs with the air out of it.
Speeding up
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| LULU | 2.12× | $100.61 | -16.7% |
| SNOW | 1.91× | $337.18 | +2.8% |
| FICO | 1.78× | $932.26 | -19.2% |
| PFG | 1.70× | $116.68 | +5.5% |
| AGCO | 1.58× | $133.40 | +17.6% |
When stocks are speeding up, check the options pricing. Cheap options on stocks that are accelerating create a directional edge.
Slowing down
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| MKTX | 0.19× | $163.38 | +0.4% |
| TECH | 0.26× | $72.43 | +0.1% |
| IRDM | 0.46× | $47.21 | +1.3% |
| AMKR | 0.47× | $47.77 | -0.1% |
| RMBS | 0.47× | $85.46 | -0.3% |
When stocks are slowing down, check the options pricing. Expensive options on slowing stocks create an income edge.
Short vs long ATR = 3-day against 27-day average true range; above 1× the daily ranges are widening, below 1× they're compressing.
Adobe's row reads like a typo, a miss paying better than a beat, and it is real: the company has missed three times in its entire reporting history, so that number is a coincidence with a decimal point on it rather than anything you can lean on. The name that actually moves this week is AVAV on Wednesday night, where a typical report day is a 7.8% swing in one direction or the other.
The biggest names reporting in the next 7 days — and what each has typically done on report day:
| Thu Sep 10 | ORCL | $434B | after close | median swing ±4.3% over 107 reports; typically +1.6% on a beat, -4.0% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 10 | ADBE | $105B | after close | median swing ±4.4% over 107 reports; typically +1.1% on a beat, +3.9% on a miss |
| Fri Sep 11 | KR | $34.5B | before open | median swing ±4.3% over 106 reports; typically +2.0% on a beat, -5.6% on a miss |
| Tue Sep 8 | CASY | $31.3B | after close | median swing ±3.9% over 107 reports; typically +2.3% on a beat, -3.4% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 10 | CPRT | $30.5B | after close | median swing ±3.4% over 107 reports; typically +0.7% on a beat, -1.9% on a miss |
| Wed Sep 9 | COO | $14.9B | after close | median swing ±4.4% over 107 reports; typically +1.8% on a beat, -3.0% on a miss |
| Wed Sep 9 | AVAV | $9.8B | after close | median swing ±7.8% over 78 reports; typically +4.3% on a beat, -5.2% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 10 | DSGX | $6.7B | after close | median swing ±3.8% over 106 reports; typically +2.1% on a beat, -0.4% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 10 | M | $6.2B | before open | median swing ±3.6% over 106 reports; typically +1.3% on a beat, -4.5% on a miss |
| Mon Sep 7 | GRFS | $5.3B | time not announced | median swing ±2.0% over 60 reports; typically +1.5% on a beat, 0.0% on a miss |
UNH lost the $400 round number on Friday and its options immediately went to the most expensive they have been in the lookback, with implied asking for about 28% of movement against roughly 19% the stock has actually delivered. What makes that worth a look is the company it keeps: health care is the strongest sector on the board over both the last month and the last three, so this is fear priced into one chain while the group it belongs to leads everything.
UNH options are the day's outlier: pricing at the 100th percentile of their own last 22 sessions (ATM implied vol 29%, which is 1.50× what the stock has actually been moving). Rich options on one name are sellers' territory, if the story fits.
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