2026-09-06
Tesla grades out neutral over the last ten years, which is a polite way of saying it goes up about as often as it goes down, and then this one week on the calendar shows up and the thing behaves itself. The worst that week has ever done to it is a 4.6% dip, which for a stock that routinely moves that much before lunch is the part worth sitting with. It walks in soft this year, having lost the $375 round on Friday.
TSLA has the strongest typical showing over the next 5 trading sessions from Sep 6 in our universe since 2010: up 15 of 16 years (94%), with a median move of +4.59% (average +5.34%). Best year +17.9% (2020); worst -4.6% (2016).
The Seasonal Watchlist
The names that have owned Sep 7 – Sep 13, year after year:
| Ticker | Hit rate | Median | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA | 94% | +3.98% | 16 yrs |
| HBM | 76% | +3.67% | 17 yrs |
| CASY | 77% | +2.05% | 26 yrs |
| BRKR | 77% | +1.78% | 26 yrs |
The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.
The two right-hand columns are the whole card: a beat on these names buys you a percent or two, and a miss takes four or five straight back out, with Kroger the least forgiving of the group at -5.6%. Adobe is the exception that isn't really one, since it has essentially stopped missing at all, and the handful of times it did the stock went up anyway.
The biggest names reporting in the next 7 days — and what each has typically done on report day:
| Tue Sep 8 | ORCL | $434B | time not announced | median swing ±4.3% over 107 reports; typically +1.6% on a beat, -4.0% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 10 | ADBE | $105B | after close | median swing ±4.4% over 107 reports; typically +1.1% on a beat, +3.9% on a miss |
| Fri Sep 11 | KR | $34.5B | before open | median swing ±4.3% over 106 reports; typically +2.0% on a beat, -5.6% on a miss |
| Tue Sep 8 | CASY | $31.3B | after close | median swing ±3.9% over 107 reports; typically +2.3% on a beat, -3.4% on a miss |
| Wed Sep 9 | COO | $14.9B | after close | median swing ±4.4% over 107 reports; typically +1.8% on a beat, -3.0% on a miss |
| Wed Sep 9 | AVAV | $9.8B | after close | median swing ±7.8% over 78 reports; typically +4.3% on a beat, -5.2% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 10 | DSGX | $6.7B | after close | median swing ±3.8% over 106 reports; typically +2.1% on a beat, -0.4% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 10 | M | $6.2B | before open | median swing ±3.6% over 106 reports; typically +1.3% on a beat, -4.5% on a miss |
Broadcom's options are priced at exactly what the stock has already been doing, implied vol and the last month of realized sitting right on top of each other, and implied is at the bottom of the range we have marks for. That is what a stock in a box does to its own option chain: turned away at $375 in late August, then held up at $350 last week.
AVGO options are the day's outlier: pricing at the 0th percentile of their own last 21 sessions (ATM implied vol 36%, which is 1.00× what the stock has actually been moving). Cheap options on one name are worth a look if you were already watching it.
The index has been flat for a month, up 0.21%, so these relative numbers are close to the actual ones: energy did nearly all of the moving while everything else took September off. Health care is the quieter story, out front on the three-month look as well, and industrials are the group being sold in both windows.
Where money has been rotating — the eleven sectors ranked against the S&P 500 over three months:
| Sector | 3-mo vs SPY | 1-mo vs SPY | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | XLV Health Care | +7.8 | +4.0 |
| 2 | XLE Energy | +7.2 | +9.9 |
| 3 | XLF Financial | +6.8 | +0.3 |
| 4 | XLK Technology | -0.7 | +0.8 |
| 5 | XLB Materials | -0.7 | +0.3 |
| 6 | XLP Consumer Staples | -2.6 | -0.8 |
| 7 | XLI Industrial | -3.8 | -5.3 |
| 8 | XLC Communication Services | -4.1 | +0.6 |
| 9 | XLY Consumer Discretionary | -4.4 | -2.9 |
| 10 | XLRE Real Estate | -5.6 | -2.2 |
| 11 | XLU Utilities | -6.9 | -0.9 |
Get issues like this by email: