2026-09-04
AXON owns the date and the shape of its record is the boring kind, which on a one-day stat is exactly what you want: it wins a lot and it has never really hurt anybody on Sep 4. The week-ahead name is a different animal wearing a similar hit rate, because MU wins roughly three out of four Septembers and still managed to drop almost twenty percent in one of them. A hit rate tells you how often a name has worked, and nothing about how much a single bad year can cost.
AXON has the strongest typical showing for Sep 4 in our universe since 2001: up 14 of 15 years (93%), with a median move of +2.44% (average +2.65%). Best year +10.5% (2002); worst -2.7% (2020).
MU has the strongest typical showing over the next 5 trading sessions from Sep 4 in our universe since 2000: up 20 of 26 years (77%), with a median move of +2.97% (average +3.12%). Best year +26.6% (2011); worst -19.6% (2001).
The Seasonal Watchlist
The names that have owned Sep 5 – Sep 11, year after year:
| Ticker | Hit rate | Median | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRM | 77% | +2.61% | 22 yrs |
The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.
The one I'd sit with is AXTI popping up off its volume shelf: on its own prior bounces from that kind of level it was higher five days later better than nine times in ten, which is not a base rate, that's the stock's own history. Read the downside breaks the other way round. TSN's own record after cracking a swing low goes nowhere over the next week, and the only reason the number next to it looks cheerful is that the all-stocks figure for this event type drifts up. When a name's own record and the generic one disagree, the name's is the one worth having.
TSN broke below a swing low at $54.03 (closed -4.2% through it).
Across 102,310 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.
Also at a level
RIG broke below its volume shelf at $6.23 (closed -3.4% through it).
CLF got rejected at a swing high at $12.85.
CMG got rejected at a swing high at $39.09.
AXTI bounced off its volume shelf at $52.98.
COHR bounced off its volume shelf at $254.68.
ARM bounced off a round number at $225.00.
The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.
ADBE is the line that stops you: it apparently goes up more when it misses than when it beats. The catch is that it has missed three times in a hundred-plus quarters, so that is three data points wearing a median's clothes, and what the row really tells you is that Adobe almost never misses. If you want an actual mover this week, the widest report-day swing on the list belongs to AVAV.
The biggest names reporting in the next 7 days — and what each has typically done on report day:
| Tue Sep 8 | ORCL | $434B | time not announced | median swing ±4.3% over 107 reports; typically +1.6% on a beat, -4.0% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 10 | ADBE | $105B | after close | median swing ±4.4% over 107 reports; typically +1.1% on a beat, +3.9% on a miss |
| Tue Sep 8 | CASY | $31.3B | after close | median swing ±3.9% over 107 reports; typically +2.3% on a beat, -3.4% on a miss |
| Wed Sep 9 | COO | $14.9B | after close | median swing ±4.4% over 107 reports; typically +1.8% on a beat, -3.0% on a miss |
| Wed Sep 9 | AVAV | $9.8B | after close | median swing ±7.8% over 78 reports; typically +4.3% on a beat, -5.2% on a miss |
| Fri Sep 4 | KT | $9.1B | time not announced | median swing ±0.9% over 65 reports; typically -0.4% on a beat, -0.1% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 10 | DSGX | $6.7B | after close | median swing ±3.8% over 106 reports; typically +2.1% on a beat, -0.4% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 10 | M | $6.2B | before open | median swing ±3.6% over 106 reports; typically +1.3% on a beat, -4.5% on a miss |
MKTX is the most stretched name on the board and also a stock that has finished lower in eight of the last ten years, which is normally the worst pairing there is: names with that record tend to hand an overbought week straight back. Its own visits to this extreme did the opposite and kept grinding higher for a month afterward, so the stock's record and the group's record are openly disagreeing. And then there's CRM, sitting at the top of its own year in this block while being the one name whose calendar record clears the floor for next week two blocks up.
Most overbought
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRM | Extreme overbought | 100th | $264.43 | +4.9% |
| DB | Extreme overbought | 100th | $41.56 | +3.7% |
| MKTX | Extreme overbought | 99th | $163.34 | +0.5% |
Most oversold
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMI | Extreme oversold | 0th | $545.50 | -4.9% |
| MAC | Extreme oversold | 0th | $23.06 | -3.6% |
| AMAT | Extreme oversold | 0th | $435.91 | -9.6% |
What's happened after this before
| Ticker | Next 3 Days | Next 7 Days | Next 30 Days | Prior Times |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MKTX | 54% · +0.3% | 51% · +0.1% | 62% · +1.4% | 374 |
| it kept going — higher 56% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| AMAT | 57% · +0.6% | 57% · +0.6% | 53% · +1.6% | 501 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 56% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| CMI | 52% · +0.2% | 53% · +0.5% | 59% · +2.0% | 501 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 55% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| MAC | 50% · -0.3% | 55% · -0.1% | 60% · +1.3% | 460 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 55% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| DB | 51% · +0.2% | 53% · +0.4% | 51% · +0.5% | 473 |
| a coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
| CRM | 43% · -0.3% | 49% · -0.2% | 57% · +0.9% | 390 |
| a coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.
Worth sitting with: MKTX is on this list for being at an extreme, and its own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.
The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.
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