2026-09-03
Salesforce put on 25.5% in five sessions, which is the kind of week you expect from a small-cap after a takeover rumour rather than from one of the biggest software companies in the country. The deflating part is CRM's own record from up here: the three days after it has been stretched this far up its own range have leaned lower more often than not, and whatever comes back only shows up around the one-month mark.
Most overbought
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRM | Extreme overbought | 100th | $258.11 | +25.5% |
| TYL | Extreme overbought | 99th | $376.43 | +7.5% |
| NTR | Extreme overbought | 98th | $77.69 | +6.7% |
Most oversold
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DY | Extreme oversold | 0th | $287.30 | -18.3% |
| FER | Extreme oversold | 0th | $57.70 | -8.5% |
| BYD | Extreme oversold | 0th | $76.39 | -5.8% |
What's happened after this before
| Ticker | Next 3 Days | Next 7 Days | Next 30 Days | Prior Times |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FER | 56% · +1.0% | 69% · +1.7% | 69% · +4.4% | 39 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 65% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| TYL | 50% · -0.1% | 53% · +0.2% | 60% · +2.0% | 492 |
| it kept going — higher 54% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| DY | 51% · +0.3% | 53% · +0.5% | 55% · +2.5% | 437 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 53% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| BYD | 49% · +0.1% | 54% · +0.4% | 50% · +1.4% | 439 |
| a coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
| NTR | 49% · -0.1% | 51% · +0.1% | 47% · -0.2% | 140 |
| a coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
| CRM | 43% · -0.4% | 49% · -0.2% | 57% · +0.8% | 389 |
| a coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.
Worth sitting with: TYL is on this list for being at an extreme, and its own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.
The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.
The one worth a second look is TFII, which lost a swing low on Monday and historically does the opposite of what that implies: its median week after breaking that level is +0.51%, better than what the average stock has managed after breaking down. MKSI broke the same kind of level on the same morning and its record runs the other way, which is the whole point of putting these side by side.
TFII broke below a swing low at $133.35 (closed -4.1% through it).
Across 102,285 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.
Also at a level
MKSI broke below a swing low at $256.16 (closed -3.8% through it).
AXTI broke below a round number at $60.00 (closed -6.5% through it).
AXON broke below a round number at $550.00 (closed -5.8% through it).
BLDR broke below its 52-week low at $65.10 (closed -3.5% through it).
SLB got rejected at its 52-week high at $60.46.
WAT got rejected at its 52-week high at $426.22.
The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.
Toro reports before the bell today with a beat record most boards would frame, and the market has never once paid up for it: the good quarters move the stock a rounding error, while the rare miss has cost a median 5.6%. Everything that happens in that name happens on one tail.
The biggest names reporting in the next 7 days — and what each has typically done on report day:
| Tue Sep 8 | ORCL | $434B | time not announced | median swing ±4.3% over 107 reports; typically +1.6% on a beat, -4.0% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 3 | CIEN | $60.7B | before open | median swing ±8.6% over 107 reports; typically +0.8% on a beat, -1.6% on a miss |
| Tue Sep 8 | CASY | $31.3B | after close | median swing ±3.9% over 107 reports; typically +2.3% on a beat, -3.4% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 3 | CPRT | $30.5B | time not announced | median swing ±3.4% over 107 reports; typically +0.7% on a beat, -1.9% on a miss |
| Wed Sep 9 | COO | $14.9B | after close | median swing ±4.4% over 107 reports; typically +1.8% on a beat, -3.0% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 3 | LULU | $13.6B | after close | median swing ±8.2% over 76 reports; typically +3.8% on a beat, -3.8% on a miss |
| Wed Sep 9 | AVAV | $9.8B | after close | median swing ±7.8% over 78 reports; typically +4.3% on a beat, -5.2% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 3 | TTC | $9.5B | before open | median swing ±3.6% over 107 reports; typically +0.3% on a beat, -5.6% on a miss |
| Fri Sep 4 | KT | $9.1B | time not announced | median swing ±0.9% over 65 reports; typically -0.4% on a beat, -0.1% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 3 | CPB | $6.8B | before open | median swing ±2.3% over 107 reports; typically +0.6% on a beat, -3.9% on a miss |
Today's date came up empty, and the stretch that starts tomorrow belongs to Micron, green in 20 of the last 26 years. It's a memory-chip stock, so the bad ones are properly bad, a double-digit loss inside five sessions back in 2000, and the best year still cleared that comfortably.
MU has the strongest typical showing over the next 5 trading sessions from Sep 3 in our universe since 2000: up 20 of 26 years (77%), with a median move of +2.95% (average +3.14%). Best year +26.6% (2011); worst -16.7% (2000).
The Seasonal Watchlist
The names that have owned Sep 4 – Sep 10, year after year:
| Ticker | Hit rate | Median | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| SNY | 79% | +1.47% | 24 yrs |
The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.
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