2026-09-01
CRM didn't grind its way onto the stretched side of this card; it jumped there, better than 22% in five sessions. It's also the only name on the page whose own history after getting this extended points down rather than sideways, which is the difference between a stock that climbed into overbought and one that got launched into it.
Most overbought
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEIC | Extreme overbought | 100th | $111.63 | +1.9% |
| CRM | Extreme overbought | 100th | $256.00 | +22.4% |
| TYL | Extreme overbought | 100th | $377.94 | +7.8% |
Most oversold
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRUS | Extreme oversold | 0th | $108.48 | -5.9% |
| DY | Extreme oversold | 0th | $294.34 | -25.1% |
| FER | Extreme oversold | 0th | $58.73 | -6.5% |
What's happened after this before
| Ticker | Next 3 Days | Next 7 Days | Next 30 Days | Prior Times |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FER | 56% · +1.0% | 69% · +1.7% | 69% · +4.4% | 39 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 65% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| SEIC | 54% · -0.1% | 56% · +0.1% | 59% · +0.8% | 480 |
| it kept going — higher 56% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| TYL | 50% · -0.1% | 53% · +0.2% | 59% · +2.0% | 491 |
| it kept going — higher 54% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| CRUS | 55% · +0.6% | 53% · +0.7% | 52% · +1.7% | 490 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 53% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| DY | 51% · +0.3% | 53% · +0.5% | 55% · +2.5% | 437 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 53% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| CRM | 43% · -0.4% | 49% · -0.2% | 57% · +0.8% | 389 |
| a coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.
Worth sitting with: SEIC, TYL are on this list for being at an extreme, and their own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.
The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.
Four of the seven names here dig metal out of the ground, and every one of them either lost a floor or got turned away at a ceiling in the same session. PAAS is the one carrying a real record behind the event: after it loses that volume shelf, five sessions later it has usually been another 4% lower, which is the unusual case where the break itself meant something rather than being noise with a price tag on it.
PAAS broke below its volume shelf at $55.15 (closed -4.1% through it).
Across 51,906 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.
Also at a level
FORM broke below a round number at $110.00 (closed -7.6% through it).
CIEN broke below a round number at $400.00 (closed -5.4% through it).
PCG got rejected at a swing high at $18.44.
BVN got rejected at a swing high at $36.82.
SSRM got rejected at its 52-week high at $39.42.
TECK got rejected at its 52-week high at $71.93.
The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.
MKTX has quietly stopped trading: a three-day average range of about thirty cents on a $162 stock. That is not a trend going quiet, that is a stock holding its breath, and the other half of this card is what the exhale looks like.
Speeding up
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| GAP | 2.57× | $23.48 | +18.6% |
| PCG | 2.19× | $16.60 | -5.7% |
| CRM | 1.97× | $256.00 | +22.4% |
| CRWD | 1.81× | $218.40 | +13.8% |
| SNPS | 1.62× | $442.61 | +11.2% |
When stocks are speeding up, check the options pricing. Cheap options on stocks that are accelerating create a directional edge.
Slowing down
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| MKTX | 0.12× | $162.72 | +0.4% |
| TECH | 0.20× | $72.35 | +0.2% |
| VSH | 0.47× | $30.56 | -3.4% |
| ON | 0.49× | $72.61 | -2.2% |
| MXL | 0.50× | $61.73 | -7.3% |
When stocks are slowing down, check the options pricing. Expensive options on slowing stocks create an income edge.
Short vs long ATR = 3-day against 27-day average true range; above 1× the daily ranges are widening, below 1× they're compressing.
Nothing has a strong record on Sep 1 itself this year. The five sessions after it belong to Ulta: green in 15 of the last 18 years, and the worst of those eighteen cost 3.4%. The hit rate is the part people quote; the shape of the misses is the part I'd actually want.
ULTA has the strongest typical showing over the next 5 trading sessions from Sep 1 in our universe since 2008: up 15 of 18 years (83%), with a median move of +4.24% (average +6.89%). Best year +23.7% (2008); worst -3.4% (2019).
The Seasonal Watchlist
The seasonal board is quiet for Sep 2 – Sep 8.
The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.
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