2026-08-31
Being stretched to the upside has historically been worth exactly 0.00% over the following week, while the washed-out side quietly pays you something. CRM is the one worth staring at either way, because it didn't drift into this reading, it sprinted there, and it did it as a stock that has spent most of the last decade losing ground.
Most overbought
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEIC | Extreme overbought | 100th | $111.63 | +1.9% |
| CRM | Extreme overbought | 100th | $256.00 | +22.4% |
| TYL | Extreme overbought | 100th | $377.94 | +7.8% |
Most oversold
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRUS | Extreme oversold | 0th | $108.48 | -5.9% |
| DY | Extreme oversold | 0th | $294.34 | -25.1% |
| FER | Extreme oversold | 0th | $58.73 | -6.5% |
What's happened after this before
| Ticker | Next 3 Days | Next 7 Days | Next 30 Days | Prior Times |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FER | 56% · +1.0% | 69% · +1.7% | 69% · +4.4% | 39 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 65% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| SEIC | 54% · -0.1% | 56% · +0.1% | 59% · +0.8% | 480 |
| it kept going — higher 56% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| TYL | 50% · -0.1% | 53% · +0.2% | 59% · +2.0% | 491 |
| it kept going — higher 54% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| CRUS | 55% · +0.6% | 53% · +0.7% | 52% · +1.7% | 490 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 53% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| DY | 51% · +0.3% | 53% · +0.5% | 55% · +2.5% | 437 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 53% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| CRM | 43% · -0.4% | 49% · -0.2% | 57% · +0.8% | 389 |
| a coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.
Worth sitting with: SEIC, TYL are on this list for being at an extreme, and their own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.
The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.
Most of this board is the metals complex getting turned away rather than through: silver, gold and copper all hit a wall on the same session. PAAS is the one that actually gave way, and it's the only line here whose own history after losing that shelf has been meaningfully worse than what the same break does to everything else. Materials had already slipped behind the index over the past month, so Friday was not the first hint.
PAAS broke below its volume shelf at $55.15 (closed -4.1% through it).
Across 51,906 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.
Also at a level
FORM broke below a round number at $110.00 (closed -7.6% through it).
CIEN broke below a round number at $400.00 (closed -5.4% through it).
PCG got rejected at a swing high at $18.44.
BVN got rejected at a swing high at $36.82.
SSRM got rejected at its 52-week high at $39.42.
TECK got rejected at its 52-week high at $71.93.
The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.
Two miners back to back: today's strongest record belongs to a silver name, and the only name clearing the bar for the first week of September pulls iron ore out of Brazil. VALE lives as a coin flip, five up years and five down over the last decade, which is what makes one specific week of its calendar behaving otherwise interesting, especially with the rest of the complex getting rejected at its highs on Friday.
HL has the strongest typical showing for Aug 31 in our universe since 2000: up 14 of 18 years (78%), with a median move of +1.71% (average +1.83%). Best year +7.7% (2000); worst -2.2% (2011).
ULTA has the strongest typical showing over the next 5 trading sessions from Aug 31 in our universe since 2008: up 14 of 18 years (78%), with a median move of +4.23% (average +6.10%). Best year +29.5% (2009); worst -3.4% (2021).
The Seasonal Watchlist
The names that have owned Sep 1 – Sep 7, year after year:
| Ticker | Hit rate | Median | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| VALE | 79% | +2.08% | 24 yrs |
The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.
HPE's own people have been buying stock since the start of June, and they're standing in front of the ugliest downside on this card: a miss has knocked 11.5% off the stock on the day, while a beat barely moves it. No reward for good news and real punishment for bad is usually the market telling you it has already made up its mind about a name.
The biggest names reporting in the next 7 days — and what each has typically done on report day:
| Wed Sep 2 | AVGO | $1870B | after close | median swing ±3.5% over 68 reports; typically +1.5% on a beat, +7.1% on a miss |
| Tue Sep 1 | DELL | $317B | after close | median swing ±6.4% over 30 reports; typically +3.5% on a beat, -7.8% on a miss |
| Tue Sep 1 | PANW | $313B | after close | median swing ±6.2% over 56 reports; typically +3.6% on a beat, -5.6% on a miss |
| Tue Sep 1 | MDT | $116B | before open | median swing ±2.3% over 107 reports; typically +0.4% on a beat, -6.4% on a miss |
| Wed Sep 2 | SNOW | $114B | after close | median swing ±11.4% over 23 reports; typically +4.4% on a beat, -4.5% on a miss |
| Wed Sep 2 | HPE | $77.7B | after close | median swing ±3.4% over 43 reports; typically +0.7% on a beat, -11.5% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 3 | CIEN | $60.7B | before open | median swing ±8.6% over 107 reports; typically +0.8% on a beat, -1.6% on a miss |
| Wed Sep 2 | NTAP | $40.6B | after close | median swing ±5.2% over 107 reports; typically +2.3% on a beat, -7.3% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 3 | CPRT | $30.5B | time not announced | median swing ±3.4% over 107 reports; typically +0.7% on a beat, -1.9% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 3 | LULU | $13.6B | after close | median swing ±8.2% over 76 reports; typically +3.8% on a beat, -3.8% on a miss |
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