2026-08-28
On the beaten-up side, TJX is the one worth a second look: of the three washed-out names it is the only one whose bounce historically was still there a month later. CRUS and DY are coin flips wearing an alarming label. And the top of the stretched list is noise, because BMNR has been this extended exactly four times in its life, which is an anecdote with a percent sign on it.
Most overbought
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR | Extreme overbought | 100th | $24.91 | +23.1% |
| EL | Extreme overbought | 100th | $105.06 | +7.2% |
| MKTX | Extreme overbought | 99th | $162.52 | +0.5% |
Most oversold
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRUS | Extreme oversold | 0th | $110.34 | -6.5% |
| TJX | Extreme oversold | 0th | $136.83 | -5.3% |
| DY | Extreme oversold | 0th | $310.91 | -22.8% |
What's happened after this before
| Ticker | Next 3 Days | Next 7 Days | Next 30 Days | Prior Times |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR | 50% · -1.7% | 50% · +0.1% | 100% · +16.9% | 4 |
| it kept going — higher 67% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| TJX | 56% · +0.3% | 61% · +0.7% | 62% · +1.8% | 453 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 60% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| MKTX | 54% · +0.3% | 51% · +0.1% | 62% · +1.4% | 373 |
| it kept going — higher 56% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| CRUS | 55% · +0.6% | 53% · +0.7% | 52% · +1.7% | 489 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 53% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| DY | 51% · +0.3% | 53% · +0.5% | 55% · +2.5% | 437 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 53% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| EL | 47% · -0.2% | 51% · -0.0% | 53% · +0.3% | 478 |
| a coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.
Worth sitting with: BMNR, MKTX are on this list for being at an extreme, and their own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.
The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.
COHR owns Aug 28 the modest way, with small dull wins around a percent and a worst showing on the date that never got past 1.7%. What is behind it is emptier: not one name cleared the floor for the five sessions after today, mostly hit rates stuck in the sixties, so on the calendar side this is the last clean date for a while.
COHR has the strongest typical showing for Aug 28 in our universe since 2000: up 16 of 19 years (84%), with a median move of +1.20% (average +1.74%). Best year +7.5% (2000); worst -1.7% (2007).
The Seasonal Watchlist
The names that have owned Aug 29 – Sep 4, year after year:
| Ticker | Hit rate | Median | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| PODD | 84% | +2.18% | 19 yrs |
| MMYT | 81% | +1.47% | 16 yrs |
| COR | 81% | +1.43% | 26 yrs |
The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.
DY had a genuinely bad week, five levels gone in four sessions, finishing nearly 10% under the volume shelf it lost on Wednesday. Its own history after breaking a shelf is the best forward record on this list, several times what the average name does after losing a level, and the same DY sits on today's beaten-up table as a pure coin flip. Both readings are in this issue because both are true, and the version I'd hold is that the bounce turns up more often than not without ever being big.
DY broke below its volume shelf at $343.78 (closed -9.6% through it).
Across 51,865 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.
Also at a level
AEM broke below a round number at $225.00 (closed -4.9% through it).
VNO broke below a round number at $40.00 (closed -2.6% through it).
CCJ got rejected at a swing high at $111.49.
LYV got rejected at a swing high at $188.00.
DKS bounced off a round number at $120.00.
WSM bounced off a round number at $225.00.
The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.
HPE is the one I'd watch: six insiders picked up nearly $4 million of stock this summer, the largest dollar cluster on our insider board right now, and two of the buyers run businesses rather than sit on the board collecting stock in place of fees. It reports Wednesday night into a history where a beat has been worth almost nothing and a miss has cost double digits. One footnote on the card: AVGO's miss column is a single quarter out of sixty-eight, and the stock went up that day, so treat it as trivia rather than a scenario.
The biggest names reporting in the next 7 days — and what each has typically done on report day:
| Wed Sep 2 | AVGO | $1870B | after close | median swing ±3.5% over 68 reports; typically +1.5% on a beat, +7.1% on a miss |
| Tue Sep 1 | DELL | $317B | after close | median swing ±6.4% over 30 reports; typically +3.5% on a beat, -7.8% on a miss |
| Tue Sep 1 | PANW | $313B | after close | median swing ±6.2% over 56 reports; typically +3.6% on a beat, -5.6% on a miss |
| Tue Sep 1 | MDT | $116B | before open | median swing ±2.3% over 107 reports; typically +0.4% on a beat, -6.4% on a miss |
| Wed Sep 2 | SNOW | $114B | after close | median swing ±11.4% over 23 reports; typically +4.4% on a beat, -4.5% on a miss |
| Wed Sep 2 | HPE | $77.7B | after close | median swing ±3.4% over 43 reports; typically +0.7% on a beat, -11.5% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 3 | CIEN | $60.7B | before open | median swing ±8.6% over 107 reports; typically +0.8% on a beat, -1.6% on a miss |
| Wed Sep 2 | NTAP | $40.6B | after close | median swing ±5.2% over 107 reports; typically +2.3% on a beat, -7.3% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 3 | CPRT | $30.5B | time not announced | median swing ±3.4% over 107 reports; typically +0.7% on a beat, -1.9% on a miss |
| Thu Sep 3 | LULU | $13.6B | after close | median swing ±8.2% over 76 reports; typically +3.8% on a beat, -3.8% on a miss |
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