2026-08-25
Nothing on today's date itself clears the floor, which happens more often than the calendar-trade crowd will admit. The week that starts tomorrow has three, and the gold one is Agnico Eagle: Coeur runs almost double the median over those same seven days and only gets there in about 65% of years, so the boring miner is the one that made the card and the exciting one didn't.
Nothing stands out for Aug 25. Quiet dates happen; the next loud one is never far.
The Seasonal Watchlist
The names that have owned Aug 26 – Sep 1, year after year:
| Ticker | Hit rate | Median | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| PBR | 77% | +2.47% | 26 yrs |
| AEM | 77% | +2.14% | 26 yrs |
| AVGO | 88% | +2.10% | 17 yrs |
The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.
Two of the three washed-out names are utilities, and utilities have handed back more than 11% to the S&P in a month, worse than any other group by a distance. NI's own history after a washout like this leans higher, and that record was earned one stock at a time; what it can't see is that right now nobody is selling NI in particular. TJX is the odd man out, because consumer discretionary is the best-performing group of the past month against the S&P and this is the member it threw overboard.
Most overbought
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AU | Extreme overbought | 100th | $121.22 | +27.2% |
| A | Extreme overbought | 100th | $159.00 | +7.0% |
| SEIC | Extreme overbought | 100th | $109.53 | +3.0% |
Most oversold
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NI | Extreme oversold | 0th | $40.62 | -4.4% |
| TJX | Extreme oversold | 0th | $140.53 | -7.6% |
| PEG | Extreme oversold | 0th | $72.61 | -4.5% |
What's happened after this before
| Ticker | Next 3 Days | Next 7 Days | Next 30 Days | Prior Times |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NI | 58% · +0.5% | 60% · +0.7% | 61% · +1.7% | 473 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 60% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| TJX | 56% · +0.3% | 61% · +0.7% | 62% · +1.8% | 453 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 60% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| SEIC | 54% · -0.1% | 56% · +0.1% | 58% · +0.7% | 478 |
| it kept going — higher 56% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| PEG | 53% · +0.0% | 55% · +0.1% | 59% · +0.8% | 502 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 56% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| A | 53% · +0.1% | 53% · +0.2% | 59% · +1.3% | 494 |
| it kept going — higher 55% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| AU | 51% · +0.3% | 50% · +0.6% | 51% · +1.1% | 492 |
| a coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.
Worth sitting with: SEIC, A are on this list for being at an extreme, and their own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.
The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.
Hecla is the only line here carrying a record worth reading: it got turned back at its swing high, and the prior rejections at that exact level had it higher five days later 56% of the time, median +2.39%. The rest of the set is the market shrugging. One to keep an eye on anyway is Marvell, which slid through the $250 round two sessions before it reports.
XEL broke below its volume shelf at $79.04 (closed -3.5% through it).
Across 51,813 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.
Also at a level
BABA broke below a round number at $130.00 (closed -8.2% through it).
MRVL broke below a round number at $250.00 (closed -5.2% through it).
EQIX got rejected at a swing high at $1099.72.
HL got rejected at a swing high at $21.29.
APA got rejected at its 52-week high at $45.05.
FRO got rejected at its 52-week high at $45.17.
The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.
Expanding range normally means something broke. This list is mostly the opposite: Merck's three-day range has blown well past its month while the stock went up, and it's doing that inside health care, the group that has run 15 points ahead of the S&P over three months. A range that widens underneath a leading sector is a different animal from one that widens on the way down.
Speeding up
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| DE | 1.81× | $647.47 | +6.3% |
| EL | 1.77× | $101.94 | +18.4% |
| NDSN | 1.73× | $332.24 | +7.6% |
| NTES | 1.68× | $128.17 | +2.4% |
| MRK | 1.66× | $152.55 | +12.3% |
When stocks are speeding up, check the options pricing. Cheap options on stocks that are accelerating create a directional edge.
Slowing down
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| MKTX | 0.11× | $162.11 | +0.2% |
| TECH | 0.27× | $72.32 | -0.1% |
| ERIC | 0.48× | $10.22 | -0.5% |
| DVA | 0.48× | $173.82 | -3.5% |
| NXPI | 0.49× | $225.56 | -3.9% |
When stocks are slowing down, check the options pricing. Expensive options on slowing stocks create an income edge.
Short vs long ATR = 3-day against 27-day average true range; above 1× the daily ranges are widening, below 1× they're compressing.
Get issues like this by email: