2026-08-23
Today itself came up empty, and the week starting tomorrow is where everything is hiding. What I like about the five names that own it is that they have nothing to do with each other: a refiner, a manufactured-housing builder, a biotech, an airline and a defense contractor. That's the shape of an actual calendar effect rather than one hot sector wearing a date's clothes, and the refiner has never given back more than 3.7% in this stretch.
MPC has the strongest typical showing over the next 5 trading sessions from Aug 23 in our universe since 2011: up 13 of 15 years (87%), with a median move of +2.84% (average +2.33%). Best year +6.7% (2019); worst -3.6% (2013).
The Seasonal Watchlist
The names that have owned Aug 24 – Aug 30, year after year:
| Ticker | Hit rate | Median | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| MPC | 87% | +2.84% | 15 yrs |
| SKY | 77% | +2.51% | 26 yrs |
| HALO | 77% | +2.31% | 22 yrs |
| AAL | 80% | +1.82% | 20 yrs |
| LDOS | 79% | +1.79% | 19 yrs |
The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.
Two of the three washed-out names are utilities, which makes this less a stock story than a sector one: XLU is running eleven points behind SPY over the last month, dead last on the board and not close. TJX is the odd one out, a retailer that fell apart on its own schedule while its group did nothing of the kind.
Most overbought
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AU | Extreme overbought | 100th | $121.22 | +27.2% |
| A | Extreme overbought | 100th | $159.00 | +7.0% |
| SEIC | Extreme overbought | 100th | $109.53 | +3.0% |
Most oversold
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NI | Extreme oversold | 0th | $40.62 | -4.4% |
| TJX | Extreme oversold | 0th | $140.53 | -7.6% |
| PEG | Extreme oversold | 0th | $72.61 | -4.5% |
What's happened after this before
| Ticker | Next 3 Days | Next 7 Days | Next 30 Days | Prior Times |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NI | 58% · +0.5% | 60% · +0.7% | 61% · +1.7% | 473 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 60% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| TJX | 56% · +0.3% | 61% · +0.7% | 62% · +1.8% | 453 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 60% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| SEIC | 54% · -0.1% | 56% · +0.1% | 58% · +0.7% | 478 |
| it kept going — higher 56% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| PEG | 53% · +0.0% | 55% · +0.1% | 59% · +0.8% | 502 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 56% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| A | 53% · +0.1% | 53% · +0.2% | 59% · +1.3% | 494 |
| it kept going — higher 55% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| AU | 51% · +0.3% | 50% · +0.6% | 51% · +1.1% | 492 |
| a coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.
Worth sitting with: SEIC, A are on this list for being at an extreme, and their own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.
The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.
The one I'd stare at is HL, turned away at its swing high on Thursday two days after it took out $20 outright. Every other time this stock has been rejected at a swing high it has gone on to run about 2.4% higher over the next week, which is roughly ten times what a rejection is worth on average across everything else. In HL a rejection has mostly meant a pause.
XEL broke below its volume shelf at $79.04 (closed -3.5% through it).
Across 51,813 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.
Also at a level
BABA broke below a round number at $130.00 (closed -8.2% through it).
MRVL broke below a round number at $250.00 (closed -5.2% through it).
EQIX got rejected at a swing high at $1099.72.
HL got rejected at a swing high at $21.29.
APA got rejected at its 52-week high at $45.05.
FRO got rejected at its 52-week high at $45.17.
The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.
CrowdStrike has never missed a quarter in its entire life as a public company, and the typical reward for that is a move of +0.6% on the day. The stock swings 6% on these prints, so whatever is moving it, the beat isn't it.
The biggest names reporting in the next 7 days — and what each has typically done on report day:
| Wed Aug 26 | NVDA | $5454B | after close | median swing ±3.0% over 107 reports; typically +0.9% on a beat, 0.0% on a miss |
| Thu Aug 27 | RY | $301B | before open | median swing ±1.6% over 107 reports; typically +0.5% on a beat, -1.7% on a miss |
| Wed Aug 26 | CRWD | $221B | after close | median swing ±6.0% over 29 reports |
| Thu Aug 27 | TD | $205B | before open | median swing ±1.3% over 107 reports; typically +0.3% on a beat, -1.0% on a miss |
| Thu Aug 27 | MRVL | $199B | after close | median swing ±5.5% over 104 reports; typically +3.8% on a beat, -1.6% on a miss |
| Wed Aug 26 | CRM | $162B | after close | median swing ±4.9% over 88 reports; typically +1.0% on a beat, -3.7% on a miss |
| Tue Aug 25 | BMO | $130B | before open | median swing ±2.0% over 107 reports; typically +0.5% on a beat, -2.3% on a miss |
| Mon Aug 24 | PDD | $121B | time not announced | median swing ±13.6% over 32 reports; typically +3.5% on a beat, -10.5% on a miss |
| Thu Aug 27 | CM | $113B | before open | median swing ±2.1% over 107 reports; typically +1.0% on a beat, -2.6% on a miss |
| Tue Aug 25 | BNS | $112B | before open | median swing ±1.4% over 107 reports; typically +0.3% on a beat, -1.4% on a miss |
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