2026-08-22
Same tag on all three names, and their own histories underneath it disagree completely. RBC is the one that has actually paid for being washed out, averaging about +3.9% twenty days after tags like this, and it's a winner in our quality book. CX gets beaten up like this constantly and twenty days on it has still, on average, been lower; cheap was never the catalyst.
Most overbought
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Extreme overbought | 100th | $156.30 | +4.7% |
| CPRT | Extreme overbought | 100th | $34.33 | +16.8% |
| MORN | Extreme overbought | 100th | $217.49 | +5.1% |
Most oversold
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CX | Extreme oversold | 0th | $10.60 | -4.3% |
| RBC | Extreme oversold | 0th | $504.61 | -9.0% |
| TJX | Extreme oversold | 0th | $140.69 | -8.5% |
What's happened after this before
| Ticker | Next 3 Days | Next 7 Days | Next 30 Days | Prior Times |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC | 61% · +0.6% | 61% · +0.9% | 66% · +3.9% | 393 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 63% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| TJX | 56% · +0.3% | 61% · +0.7% | 62% · +1.8% | 453 |
| it did tend to bounce — higher 60% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| MORN | 60% · +0.4% | 55% · +0.4% | 52% · +0.0% | 340 |
| it kept going — higher 56% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| A | 53% · +0.1% | 53% · +0.2% | 59% · +1.3% | 494 |
| it kept going — higher 55% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| CPRT | 50% · +0.0% | 53% · +0.0% | 56% · +0.0% | 448 |
| it kept going — higher 53% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| CX | 50% · -0.3% | 49% · -0.5% | 47% · -0.7% | 467 |
| a coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.
Worth sitting with: MORN, A, CPRT are on this list for being at an extreme, and their own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.
The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.
Today's own date came up with nothing worth handing you, so the card steps forward into the week that starts tomorrow, and it reads like an energy screen: refining, oil sands, uranium, Australian gas. Energy is also one of only two sectors beating SPY over the last month, which is a nice coincidence. The odd name out is Cytokinetics, a biotech with the best median of the group whose worst trip through this week since 2004 happened last year.
CYTK has the strongest typical showing over the next 5 trading sessions from Aug 22 in our universe since 2004: up 17 of 22 years (77%), with a median move of +4.33% (average +4.24%). Best year +23.0% (2004); worst -7.9% (2025).
The Seasonal Watchlist
The names that have owned Aug 23 – Aug 29, year after year:
| Ticker | Hit rate | Median | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| CYTK | 77% | +4.33% | 22 yrs |
| MPC | 87% | +3.60% | 15 yrs |
| CVE | 81% | +3.25% | 16 yrs |
| UEC | 79% | +3.08% | 19 yrs |
| WDS | 84% | +2.82% | 19 yrs |
| NTAP | 81% | +2.57% | 26 yrs |
The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.
The one worth staring at is CF, turned away at its swing high on Thursday. A rejection is supposed to be the bad news, and for CF it hasn't been: five days after these, it has been higher about two-thirds of the time with a median of +2.56%, well ahead of what the average rejection across the whole database delivers. It also broke down through $120 last week and promptly rallied instead, so the levels keep firing backwards on this one.
CW broke below a swing low at $670.29 (closed -3.3% through it).
Across 102,156 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.
Also at a level
KTOS broke below a round number at $60.00 (closed -6.4% through it).
AVAV broke below a round number at $170.00 (closed -6.0% through it).
ENSG got rejected at a swing high at $186.00.
CF got rejected at a swing high at $129.39.
VRT bounced off its volume shelf at $254.68.
GPC bounced off its volume shelf at $129.02.
The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.
CrowdStrike has never missed a quarter in its life as a public company, and print day still swings it 6%, double what Nvidia does on the very same night. Whatever the market is trading after these reports, it stopped being the beat a long time ago. Nvidia's own line is the quieter shock: on the quarters it did miss, the median reaction was nothing at all.
The biggest names reporting in the next 7 days — and what each has typically done on report day:
| Wed Aug 26 | NVDA | $5454B | after close | median swing ±3.0% over 107 reports; typically +0.9% on a beat, 0.0% on a miss |
| Thu Aug 27 | RY | $301B | before open | median swing ±1.6% over 107 reports; typically +0.5% on a beat, -1.7% on a miss |
| Wed Aug 26 | CRWD | $221B | after close | median swing ±6.0% over 29 reports |
| Thu Aug 27 | TD | $205B | before open | median swing ±1.3% over 107 reports; typically +0.3% on a beat, -1.0% on a miss |
| Thu Aug 27 | MRVL | $199B | after close | median swing ±5.5% over 104 reports; typically +3.8% on a beat, -1.6% on a miss |
| Wed Aug 26 | CRM | $162B | after close | median swing ±4.9% over 88 reports; typically +1.0% on a beat, -3.7% on a miss |
| Tue Aug 25 | BMO | $130B | before open | median swing ±2.0% over 107 reports; typically +0.5% on a beat, -2.3% on a miss |
| Mon Aug 24 | PDD | $121B | time not announced | median swing ±13.6% over 32 reports; typically +3.5% on a beat, -10.5% on a miss |
| Thu Aug 27 | CM | $113B | before open | median swing ±2.1% over 107 reports; typically +1.0% on a beat, -2.6% on a miss |
| Tue Aug 25 | BNS | $112B | before open | median swing ±1.4% over 107 reports; typically +0.3% on a beat, -1.4% on a miss |
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