2026-08-21
TGT shows up here as a rejection at the $150 round, which reads like a ceiling until you notice it printed a new 52-week high in the same session — that round number is underneath the stock now, not above it. It's also the only line on the card whose own history at this kind of level has ever amounted to much; everything else sits within a couple of points of a coin flip in both directions.
RBC broke below a swing low at $545.51 (closed -4.6% through it).
Across 102,145 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.
Also at a level
AXTI broke below a round number at $80.00 (closed -8.2% through it).
STLD broke below a round number at $250.00 (closed -7.6% through it).
FTI got rejected at its 52-week high at $80.42.
GLXY bounced off a round number at $20.00.
TGT bounced off a round number at $150.00.
SNDK got rejected at a round number at $1700.00.
The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.
MRK is the one worth your time. It got shoved back off its 52-week high on the 18th and then cleared both that high and the round number above it the next session, and that is what a three-day range at double the normal looks like from the inside. Before anyone chases it: MRK has spent the last decade being thoroughly average by our own scoring, and average names stretched this far have gone precisely nowhere from here — median +0.03% five days on. The move is the event, not the setup.
Speeding up
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| MRK | 2.13× | $152.20 | +14.5% |
| EL | 2.03× | $98.01 | +11.8% |
| UGI | 1.88× | $38.55 | +9.8% |
| NUE | 1.87× | $248.74 | -8.5% |
| HTHT | 1.75× | $48.59 | +17.8% |
When stocks are speeding up, check the options pricing. Cheap options on stocks that are accelerating create a directional edge.
Slowing down
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| MKTX | 0.11× | $161.74 | 0.0% |
| TECH | 0.35× | $72.48 | +0.3% |
| APP | 0.51× | $310.79 | +2.3% |
| GOOG | 0.56× | $341.70 | -0.2% |
| ERIC | 0.56× | $10.15 | -0.3% |
When stocks are slowing down, check the options pricing. Expensive options on slowing stocks create an income edge.
Short vs long ATR = 3-day against 27-day average true range; above 1× the daily ranges are widening, below 1× they're compressing.
The whole week is arranged around Wednesday night's NVDA print, and NVDA is the mildest name on this card — a typical report-day move of 3%, half of what CRWD does on its own number. The two actually worth watching are PDD on Monday, where a miss has historically cost double digits, and CRWD, which has no miss column at all because it has never had one.
The biggest names reporting in the next 7 days — and what each has typically done on report day:
| Wed Aug 26 | NVDA | $5454B | after close | median swing ±3.0% over 107 reports; typically +0.9% on a beat, 0.0% on a miss |
| Thu Aug 27 | RY | $301B | before open | median swing ±1.6% over 107 reports; typically +0.5% on a beat, -1.7% on a miss |
| Wed Aug 26 | CRWD | $221B | after close | median swing ±6.0% over 29 reports |
| Thu Aug 27 | TD | $205B | before open | median swing ±1.3% over 107 reports; typically +0.3% on a beat, -1.0% on a miss |
| Thu Aug 27 | MRVL | $199B | after close | median swing ±5.5% over 104 reports; typically +3.8% on a beat, -1.6% on a miss |
| Wed Aug 26 | CRM | $162B | after close | median swing ±4.9% over 88 reports; typically +1.0% on a beat, -3.7% on a miss |
| Tue Aug 25 | BMO | $130B | before open | median swing ±2.0% over 107 reports; typically +0.5% on a beat, -2.3% on a miss |
| Mon Aug 24 | PDD | $121B | time not announced | median swing ±13.6% over 32 reports; typically +3.5% on a beat, -10.5% on a miss |
| Thu Aug 27 | CM | $113B | before open | median swing ±2.1% over 107 reports; typically +1.0% on a beat, -2.6% on a miss |
| Tue Aug 25 | BNS | $112B | before open | median swing ±1.4% over 107 reports; typically +0.3% on a beat, -1.4% on a miss |
Health Care leads both columns, which is rarer than it sounds — usually the three-month winner is cooling off by the time you check the one-month list, and XLV is doing the opposite. Financials are the mirror image: still comfortably second over three months while going flat over the last one, so that move did its work a while ago. And the sector hauling MRK up the acceleration table is the one still accelerating itself.
Where money has been rotating — the eleven sectors ranked against the S&P 500 over three months:
| Sector | 3-mo vs SPY | 1-mo vs SPY | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | XLV Health Care | +14.7 | +6.9 |
| 2 | XLF Financial | +7.8 | -0.3 |
| 3 | XLI Industrial | +3.0 | -0.9 |
| 4 | XLB Materials | +2.4 | +2.1 |
| 5 | XLK Technology | +1.0 | -1.2 |
| 6 | XLE Energy | -0.6 | +5.9 |
| 7 | XLY Consumer Discretionary | -1.8 | +0.5 |
| 8 | XLRE Real Estate | -1.8 | -3.2 |
| 9 | XLP Consumer Staples | -3.9 | +0.2 |
| 10 | XLU Utilities | -5.2 | -4.8 |
| 11 | XLC Communication Services | -8.7 | -1.6 |
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