2026-08-20
Five of these six spend next week just trading. Salesforce spends Wednesday night reporting, right in the middle of the window, and its print day carries a 4.9% median swing in either direction. For CRM this stops being a calendar trade the moment the tape opens Thursday.
HMY has the strongest typical showing for Aug 20 in our universe since 2001: up 14 of 18 years (78%), with a median move of +1.85% (average +1.84%). Best year +9.1% (2019); worst -3.5% (2012).
CYTK has the strongest typical showing over the next 5 trading sessions from Aug 20 in our universe since 2004: up 17 of 22 years (77%), with a median move of +2.79% (average +3.89%). Best year +23.0% (2004); worst -8.9% (2005).
The Seasonal Watchlist
The names that have owned Aug 21 – Aug 27, year after year:
| Ticker | Hit rate | Median | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| CYTK | 77% | +2.79% | 22 yrs |
| SCCO | 77% | +2.57% | 26 yrs |
| AG | 79% | +2.56% | 19 yrs |
| NTAP | 81% | +2.32% | 26 yrs |
| KTOS | 81% | +2.11% | 26 yrs |
| CRM | 77% | +2.04% | 22 yrs |
The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.
Two names came to their 52-week highs on Wednesday and went opposite ways: FTI got knocked back from its, TGT went straight through. Target has been the cleanest thing on this board all month — it took out $150 on the 10th and the five sessions after that were worth 8.38%.
RBC broke below a swing low at $545.51 (closed -4.6% through it).
Across 102,145 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.
Also at a level
AXTI broke below a round number at $80.00 (closed -8.2% through it).
STLD broke below a round number at $250.00 (closed -7.6% through it).
FTI got rejected at its 52-week high at $80.42.
GLXY bounced off a round number at $20.00.
TGT bounced off a round number at $150.00.
SNDK got rejected at a round number at $1700.00.
The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.
Nucor is the only name on the accelerating side pointed down, and the line it lost on Wednesday was $250 — the same round number STLD broke in the same session. When two steel names give up the identical level on the same day, that's a group moving, not a stock.
Speeding up
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| MRK | 2.13× | $152.20 | +14.5% |
| EL | 2.03× | $98.01 | +11.8% |
| UGI | 1.88× | $38.55 | +9.8% |
| NUE | 1.87× | $248.74 | -8.5% |
| HTHT | 1.75× | $48.59 | +17.8% |
When stocks are speeding up, check the options pricing. Cheap options on stocks that are accelerating create a directional edge.
Slowing down
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| MKTX | 0.11× | $161.74 | 0.0% |
| TECH | 0.35× | $72.48 | +0.3% |
| APP | 0.51× | $310.79 | +2.3% |
| GOOG | 0.56× | $341.70 | -0.2% |
| ERIC | 0.56× | $10.15 | -0.3% |
When stocks are slowing down, check the options pricing. Expensive options on slowing stocks create an income edge.
Short vs long ATR = 3-day against 27-day average true range; above 1× the daily ranges are widening, below 1× they're compressing.
CrowdStrike has never handed the market a miss on this record, and the print still moves the stock 6% at the median. Whatever gets decided on Wednesday night, the beat isn't it.
The biggest names reporting in the next 7 days — and what each has typically done on report day:
| Wed Aug 26 | NVDA | $5454B | after close | median swing ±3.0% over 107 reports; typically +0.9% on a beat, 0.0% on a miss |
| Thu Aug 20 | WMT | $917B | before open | median swing ±2.1% over 107 reports; typically +1.1% on a beat, -2.3% on a miss |
| Thu Aug 20 | BABA | $297B | before open | median swing ±4.0% over 47 reports; typically -0.7% on a beat, -4.5% on a miss |
| Wed Aug 26 | CRWD | $221B | after close | median swing ±6.0% over 29 reports |
| Thu Aug 20 | DE | $165B | before open | median swing ±3.8% over 107 reports; typically +1.2% on a beat, -2.2% on a miss |
| Wed Aug 26 | CRM | $162B | after close | median swing ±4.9% over 88 reports; typically +1.0% on a beat, -3.7% on a miss |
| Tue Aug 25 | BMO | $130B | before open | median swing ±2.0% over 107 reports; typically +0.5% on a beat, -2.3% on a miss |
| Mon Aug 24 | PDD | $121B | time not announced | median swing ±13.6% over 32 reports; typically +3.5% on a beat, -10.5% on a miss |
| Tue Aug 25 | BNS | $112B | before open | median swing ±1.4% over 107 reports; typically +0.3% on a beat, -1.4% on a miss |
| Tue Aug 25 | INTU | $94.6B | after close | median swing ±3.8% over 107 reports; typically +1.2% on a beat, -0.2% on a miss |
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